Daily Market Outlook: January 15, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro returns below 1.1800 handle, following yesterday’s choppy trading, which ended in long-legged Doji. Initial dip to fresh low at 1.1726 was followed by sharp bounce to 1.1845, where rally stalled. Hourly studies are gaining bearish tone, along with negative setup of larger timeframes technicals, keeping downside in near-term focus. New low at 1.1726 and round-figure 1.17 level are the sole obstacles on the way towards target at 1.1640, 2005 low. Initial barrier lies at 1.18, above which, more significant 1.1845, yesterday’s high / daily 10SMA / Tenkan-Sen, is expected to cap, guarding 1.1870 breakpoint, high of 12 Jan.

Res: 1.1800; 1.1845; 1.1870; 1.1895
Sup: 1.1752; 1.1726; 1.1700; 1.1640




EUR/JPY

The pair remains in a downtrend and posted fresh low at 136.99, on yesterday’s probe below 137 support, after strong support at psychological 140 zone, reinforced by 200SMA was lost. Corrective rally is under way and expected to precede fresh leg lower, as overall bears keep focus at the downside for full retracement of 134.12/149.76 ascend. Initial resistance at 138.89, yesterday’s high, along with 4-hour Kijun-Sen at 139.08, which starts to move lower, stay intact for now and should ideally cap, as the area marks approx 50% of 140.86/136.99 downleg. Extended rallies, however, are expected to hold below 140 barrier, to keep bears intact.

Res: 138.89; 139.08; 139.38; 140.00
Sup: 138.37; 138.00; 137.74; 137.29




GBP/USD

Near-term studies regained traction on yesterday’s fresh rally, which broke above two-day directionless trade, with yesterday’s positive close, which came after double-Doji, signaling possible stronger recovery action, ahead of attack at psychological 1.50 support. Yesterday’s break and close above daily 10SMA, focuses pivotal 1.5317 lower top, above which to confirm reversal and open daily 20SMA, currently at 1.5378. However, bearish setup of daily chart studies, requires caution, as early rejection under pivotal barriers, would signal lower top formation and fresh acceleration lower.

Res: 1.5244; 1.5267; 1.5317; 1.5350
Sup: 1.5181; 1.5143; 1.5100; 1.5075




USD/JPY

The pair accelerated lower yesterday and posted new low at 116.05, looking for final push towards 115.55 breakpoint, low of 16 Dec and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 105.18/121.83 ascend. However, yesterday’s Hammer requires caution, with subsequent bounce so far seen as corrective phase, preceding fresh push lower, as rallies were so far capped at 117.93, yesterday’s high. Break here and 118.36, daily cloud top, would sideline bears and signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, expect lower top formation and fresh attempt lower, as daily studies are turning bearish and daily 10/20SMA’s bear cross at 119.12, maintains pressure.

Res: 117.93; 118.36; 118.84; 119.30
Sup: 117.42; 117.00; 116.67; 116.05



AUD/USD


The pair accelerates higher and probes above 0.82 barrier, after reversal from 0.8253, upside rejection, found support at 0.8066. Positive near-term technicals favor attack at 0.8253, with close above, to confirm breakout from near-term congestion and spark stronger correction from 0.8031 double-bottom. Daily studies are gaining traction, with today’s trading being contained by daily 20SMA and formation of 10/20SMA’s bull-cross, expected to underpin rally for eventual break higher. Conversely, repeated failure at the upside barrier, to signal prolonged consolidation, with higher base at 0.8130, marking solid support and near-term breakpoint.

Res: 0.8253; 0.8300; 0.8322; 0.8373
Sup: 0.8200; 0.8175; 0.8130; 0.810




AUD/NZD


Yesterday’s fresh rally averts immediate downside risk, ending day in long lower shadow Doji, supported by daily 10/20SMA’s bull cross. Today’s fresh acceleration higher, which probes above 1.06 barrier, also 50% of 1.0664/1.0350 downleg, confirms near-term bottom and signals further corrective action. Close above 1.06 handle to confirm recovery and open 1.0668, Fibonacci 61.8%, ahead of 1.07, round-figure barrier. North heading dailies and firmly bullish near-term technicals, support the notion. Corrective dips should hold above 1.05 support, near 50% of recovery from 1.0350, to keep fresh bulls in play.

Res: 1.0646; 1.0668; 1.0700; 1.0743
Sup: 1.0600; 1.0566; 1.0527; 1.0500




XAU/USD

Spot gold holds overall bullish tone, but near-term structure weakened, following repeated rejection at 1244 high, which left the second long upper shadow Doji, signaling hesitation on approach to key barrier at 1255, former top and 200SMA. Fresh easing approaches higher base and yesterday’s lows at 1224, also mid-point of 1204/1244 rally, which is expected to ideally contain, ahead of fresh attempts higher. However, further corrective easing should find solid support at 1218, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / higher low of 12Jan, reinforced by ascending daily 10SMA. Only break here to sideline bulls and signal stronger correction entire 1131/1244 rally.

Res: 1232; 1239; 1244; 1250
Sup: 1224; 1218; 1213; 1205