Daily Market Outlook: January 14, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro has established in near-term sideways trading, consolidating above fresh 9-year low at 1.1752, with upside attempts being limited at 1.1870, 12 Jan correction high. Yesterday’s return to 1.1752 support, and close in long red candle, signals fresh weakness in the near-term, as overall bears favor extension towards target at 1.1640, 2005 low. Falling daily 10SMA, currently at 1.1877, reinforces initial barrier and consolidation range tops, along with descending daily Tenkan-Sen line at 1.1930, which guards 1.1975/1.2000 breakpoint zone.

Res: 1.1822; 1.1870; 1.1890; 1.1930
Sup: 1.1780; 1.1752; 1.1700; 1.1640




EUR/JPY

The pair accelerates lower after losing strong 140 support zone, / Fibonacci 61.8% of 134.12/149.76 rally and 200SMA. Yesterday’s long red candle confirms strong bearish tone, as the third wave off 147.20, lower top of 29 Dec 2014, is looking for extension towards its 200% Fibonacci expansion at 137.29. Descend could be interrupted by corrective rally, as near-term studies are oversold. Initial barrier lies at 138.89, session high, ahead of 139.44, yesterday’s intraday low and strong 140.00/20 resistance zone, psychological barrier / 200SMA, where extended rallies should be capped. Key short-term support lies at 134.12, Oct 2014 low and break here to signal stronger correction of ascend from 94.10 to 149.76, 2012 low / 2014 high.

Res: 138.30; 138.89; 139.44; 140.20
Sup: 137.29; 136.55; 136.00; 135.20




GBP/USD

Cable remains in near-term sideways mode, as upside attempts were so far limited under 1.52 barrier and yesterday’s dips below 1.51 handle and near-term range floor, being short-lived. Double Doji and neutral near-term studies confirm directionless mode, while larger timeframes technicals maintain firm bearish tone. However, extended daily studies suggest prolonged consolidation, ahead of fresh attempt lower. Low of 08 Jan at 1.5032, marks initial support, ahead of psychological 1.50 level, with short-term focus at 1.4812/30 higher base and lows of 2013. Descending daily 10SMA, reinforces near-term congestion tops, while daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.5308, strengthens next barrier and breakpoint at 1.5317, 05 Jan high, posted after previous week’s gap-lower opening.

Res: 1.5175; 1.5191; 1.5214; 1.5255
Sup: 1.5143; 1.5100; 1.5075; 1.5032



USD/JPY

The pair accelerates lower, following yesterday’s break and close below 118 handle and today’s penetration through daily Ichimoku cloud top. As fresh weakness retraced so far over 76.4% of 115.55/120.81 rally, on probe below 117 support, near-term focus is shifted towards key short-term support and breakpoint at 115.55, 16 Dec low and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 105.18/121.83 rally, break of which is required to signal stronger correction. Daily bulls are fading, while weekly indicators are reversing and supporting scenario. Consolidative actions to be anticipated in the near-term, as hourly studies are oversold. Extended rallies should be ideally capped at 118 zone, today’s high / former congestion lows and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 119.95/116.73 downleg.

Res: 117.50; 118.00; 118.35; 118.84
Sup: 116.73; 116.30; 116.00; 115.55




AUD/USD


The pair comes under pressure and accelerates lower, retracing so far over 76.4% of corrective 0.8031/0.8253 rally. Yesterday’s consolidation, which ended in Doji, was short-lived, with fresh weakness, reviving near-term bears and confirming false break higher. Immediate target at 0.8031 is now focused, with extension lower to attack next targets at psychological 0.80 level and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year ascend from 0.6007 to 1.1079, at 0.7945. Yesterday’s congestion tops at 0.82 zone, are expected to cap upside attempts.

Res: 0.8129; 0.8170; 0.8200; 0.8253
Sup: 0.8066; 0.8031; 0.8000; 0.7945




AUD/NZD


The pair came under pressure and accelerated below 1.05 support, after yesterday’s failure to clear pivotal 1.0567 barrier, 05 Jan high. Fresh weakness so far erased all yesterday’s gains and retraced nearly 50% of 1.0350/1.0566 rally. Weakening near-term studies increase risk of further downside, which will neutralize idea of stronger corrective action and signal prolonged consolidation, with near-term focus shifting towards 1.0350, 07 Jan fresh low. Overall bearish picture, favor further weakness and eventual break below critical multi-year support zone, with the last support at 1.0285, low of 1997.

Res: 1.0516; 1.0567; 1.0600; 1.0650
Sup: 1.0444; 1.0433; 1.0400; 1.0370




XAU/USD

Spot gold holds overall bullish tone, following yesterday’s extension to 1244 high, with near-term corrective action under way. Pullback so far dipped near 1223, previous high and 50% retracement of 1204/1244 upleg, where dips should be contained. Yesterday’s failure to close above 1238 barrier and red candle with long upper shadow, signals possible stronger weakness, which requires break below 1223. On the other side, bullish setup of daily studies, with 10/55 and 10/20 SMA’s bull-crosses, underpins the action, as daily 10SMA attempts above 100SMA, reinforcing bullish structure. Fresh strength to focus strong 1255 barrier, high of 21 Oct 2014 and 200SMA.

Res: 1234; 1238; 1244; 1250
Sup: 1223; 1218; 1213; 1209