Daily Market Outlook: GBP/USD Remains In Consolidative Phase

EUR/USD

The euro continues to trade in a choppy consolidative phase, with range narrowing from original 1.1260/1.1421 span. Near-term studies hold neutral tone and require trigger to establish fresh direction. However, bears continue to prevail on daily/weekly timeframes, with immediate barrier of daily 10SMA at 1.1335, being tested so far. Break here would be the first step of further recovery that will face next barrier at 1.1372, daily Tenkan-sen line and static resistance at 1.1421, high of 27 Jan. Close above here would give initial confirmation of fresh bulls developing, while break above descending daily 20SMA at 1.1527, is required to confirm and open pivotal barrier at 1.1679, lower top of 21 Jan. On the downside, higher lows of 30/29 Jan at 1.1277/60, offer initial layer of supports, ahead of 1.1220 higher base and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1096/1.1421 upleg, loss of which to signal bearish resumption and refocus key near-term support at 1.1096, low of 26 Jan.

Res: 1.1366; 1.1387; 1.1421; 1.1458
Sup: 1.1277; 1.1260; 1.1220; 1.1172




EUR/JPY

Near-term tone is negatively aligned, as the pair posted series of lower highs and cracked initial support and range floor at 132.40 zone, on yesterday’s dip to 132.13. Despite the dip was short lived, hourly studies are gaining negative tone, after recovery attempts were capped under descending daily 10SMA that kept the upside attempts limited until now. Also, bearish tone of larger timeframes studies, favors fresh downside, which requires break below psychological 132 support and close below 131.74, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 130.13/134.35 recovery phase, to confirm lower top at 134.35 and accelerate towards fresh low at 130.13 and psychological 130.00 support. Conversely, close above daily 10SMA would ease downside pressure, while break above pivotal 134.35 high is required to signal fresh recovery and expose daily 20SMA, currently at 136.00.

Res: 133.44; 133.58; 134.17; 134.35
Sup: 132.38; 132.13; 131.74; 131.13




GBP/USD


Cable remains in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.4950, with near-term studies gaining negative tone after repeated rejection at 1.51 zone, where daily Tenkan-sen capped and fresh weakness that came ticks from psychological 1.50 support. The action lower is maintained by descending daily 20SMA, with bearish setup of daily studies, seeing risk of penetration of 1.5 support, for eventual return to key support at 1.4950 and resumption of larger downtrend towards next targets at 1.4910, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 1.3501/1.7189 ascend and 2013 lows and higher base at 1.4830/12. Only close above 1.51 zone, upside rejections and daily 20SMA, would improve near-term structure.

Res: 1.5048; 1.5100; 1.5160; 1.5221
Sup: 1.5003; 1.4987; 1.4950; 1.4910



USD/JPY

The pair came under pressure and retested yesterday’s low at 116.86, signaling an end of near-term consolidative phase, which had the base at 117.20. Daily close below 117.20 is required to confirm, with close below 116.86 lows, to accelerate bears and re-open key supports at 115.83 and more significant 115.55, 16 Dec low. Studies are bearish on lower and larger timeframes, with daily 10/20SMA’s bear-cross at 118.00, expected to cap recovery attempts, guarding daily Ichimoku cloud top at 118.43.

Res: 117.86; 118.00; 118.43; 118.64
Sup: 117.20; 116.86; 116.55; 115.83



AUD/USD

The pair came under increased pressure after RBA’s rate cut and accelerated through 0.7718/00 handles. Temporary footstep was found at 0.7650, with consolidation on oversold near-term studies, expected to precede fresh push lower. No significant supports are seen on the way towards next targets at 0.7340, May 2009 low and 0.7205, Fibonacci 76.4% of 2008/2011 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Previous low of 30 Jan at 0.7718, offers initial barrier, ahead of today’s high at 0.7831, with break here needed to sideline immediate downside risk. Key resistances and breakpoints lay at 0.8020/30, daily 20SMA / former low of 07 Jan.

Res: 0.7700; 0.7718; 0.7745; 0.7786
Sup: 0.7600; 0.7535; 0.7500; 0.7450




AUD/NZD


Fresh acceleration lower and probe below 1.06 handle, maintain soft near-term tone and focus target at 1.0576, 23/26 Jan higher base, for full retracement of 1.0576/1.0792 bull-phase. This support acts as the first break point, marking 505 of 1.0350/1.0792 and is reinforced by daily 20SMA, with close below here, to signal near-term top at 1.0792 and open way for further retracement of recovery phase from 1.0350 low to 1.0792. South-heading daily indicators and bearish setup of daily MA’s, supports the notion, with full confirmation requiring close below daily 20SMA. On the upside, lower platform at 1.0736, offers strong resistance, guarding pivotal 1.0792 high.

Res: 1.0658; 1.0700; 1.0736; 1.0765
Sup: 1.0576; 1.0520; 1.0500; 1.0455




XAU/USD

Spot Gold attempts at strong resistance at 1285, near-term congestion tops and daily 10SMA, after corrective dips found footstep at 1266, contained by ascending daily 20SMA. Sustained break above 1285 that also marks Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1307/1251 corrective phase, is required to confirm higher low at 1251 and open next targets at 1297/1300. Holding below daily 20SMA, however, would signal prolonged consolidative phase, with risk of return to pivotal 1251 support, 29 Jan correction low and 200SMA, to remain in play.

Res: 1285; 1292; 1297; 1300
Sup: 1278; 1272; 1266; 1258