Daily Market Outlook: February 4, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro is gaining traction on near-term studies, as further shorts squeeze cleared daily 10SMA and tested daily 20SMA, on a probe above 1.15 barrier. Consolidation above 1.1456, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1679/1.1096 downleg is under way, with initial signals of downtrend stall, suggesting further recovery. Bullish setups of near-term studies support the notion, as daily indicators are starting to reverse. Close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.1515, is required to confirm and expose breakpoint at 1.1679, lower top of 21 Jan. Extended corrective actions should be contained above former range tops and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1260/1.1532 upleg at 1.1565, to keep the structure intact. Otherwise, break here and loss of daily 10SMA at 1.1535, would signal lower top formation and fresh weakness.

Res: 1.1515; 1.1543; 1.1600; 1.1650
Sup: 1.1456; 1.1428; 1.1400; 1.1366





EUR/JPY

Yesterday’s rally through daily 10SMA and close above previous consolidation top at 134.35, sidelines downside risk and signals further recovery. Fresh rally that peaked at 135.35, turned near-term technicals into bullish mode, supported by north-turning daily indicators. Break and close above daily SMA, currently at 135.77, is required to confirm recovery extension and focus pivotal lower top of 20 Jan at 137.62. However, the downside is still vulnerable, with corrective dips required to hold above daily 10SMA at 133.55, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 132.13/135.35 upleg, to avert risk of fresh bears developing on break and close below this support.

Res: 135.00; 135.35; 135.77; 136.00
Sup: 134.35; 134.12; 133.75; 133.55




GBP/USD


Cable continues to trade in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.4950, with bounce above 1.51 barrier, turning the price to the upper part of the range. Yesterday’s positive close and above daily 20SMA, shifts near-term focus towards the upper rage boundary, as near-term technicals are improving. However, close above 1.5267, 14 Jan high, is required to confirm near-term bottom and open stronger recovery, while failure here would be a signal of prolonged consolidation within existing range.

Res: 1.5174; 1.5195; 1.5221; 1.5267
Sup: 1.5161; 1.5116; 1.5094; 1.5066



USD/JPY

The pair bounced into near-term range’s midpoint, after yesterday’s repeated attempt below 117 support, ending day in Doji. Immediate downside risk, signaled by probe below 117 handle, is averted and near-term structure suggests further neutral action, however, rallies stay capped by descending daily 20SMA. This would keep the downside vulnerable in the near-term, with sustained break below 118 support, required to confirm bearish resumption. Conversely, close above daily 20SMA, currently at 117.82, would be seen as initial signal of recovery, with extension above daily cloud top at 118.43, required to confirm and open correction high at 118.85 and psychological 120 barrier, in extension.

Res: 117.98; 118.43; 118.64; 118.85
Sup: 117.20; 116.86; 116.55; 115.83


AUD/USD

The pair fully reversed yesterday’s fall from 0.7830 to a fresh low at 0.7624, to end yesterday’s trading in long-legged Doji. Hourly structure turned positive, however, larger picture’s bears remain intact, as recovery rally was so far capped under descending daily 10SMA, currently at 0.7861. Break and close above here would signal extended correction, which should find resistance under breakpoint at 0.8023, 28 Jan lower top, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Only sustained break here would sideline bears and pause strong downtrend.

Res: 0.7861; 0.7900; 0.7930; 0.8000
Sup: 0.7800; 0.7752; 0.7718; 0.7684





AUD/NZD


The pair remains under pressure and resumes from 1.0791 peak, with yesterday’s close in red and below daily 20SMA, signaling further weakness. Fresh bearish acceleration, which commenced after completion of 1.0576/1.0792 upleg, probes below 1.0520, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0350/1.0792 recovery rally, with close below here, to increase risk of full retracement of recovery rally from 1.0350 low. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped under lower top at 1.0650.

Res: 1.0545; 1.0600; 1.0631; 1.0650
Sup: 1.0508; 1.0455; 1.0423; 1.0400




XAU/USD

Spot Gold lost traction and dipped close to strong support at 1251, former low and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1167/1307, reinforced by 200SMA, after failure to break above near-term congestion tops at 1285, reinforced by daily 10SMA. Acceleration lower that closed below daily 20SMA, which was initially underpinning upside attempts, puts pivotal 1251 support under increased pressure. Break and close below here to confirm stronger pullback off fresh high at 1307, towards 1237, 50% retracement and 1220, 61.8% / daily 55SMA. Negatively aligned near-term studies and south-heading daily indicators, support the notion. Prolonged consolidation, however, to be expected while 1251 support holds.

Res: 1266; 1272; 1282; 1285
Sup: 1255; 1251; 1237; 1224