Daily Market Outlook: December 8, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro consolidates under initial 1.23 barrier, after last Friday’s sharp fall post US payroll data, when the price reached fresh low at 1.2270, followed by daily / weekly close in red. Overall tone remains bearish and favors further downside, on completion of consolidative phase. Short-term target at 1.2042, July 2012 low is focused. Corrective action above 1.2300, to expose strong barriers at 1.2360, former base and 1.2400, daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line, where extended rallies should be ideally capped. Only break above 1.2455, 04 Dec peak, reinforced by daily 20SMA, would sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.2300; 1.2340; 1.2360; 1.2400
Sup: 1.2270; 1.2218; 1.2200; 1.2177




EURJPY


The pair posted fresh high at 149.76 overnight, after last Friday’s rally eventually fully retraced 149.12/145.57 pullback, on extension to 149.50, last week’s high. Positive daily and weekly close maintains overall bullish trend, which looks for final push towards near-term target at psychological 150 barrier. Weekly open with 35-pips gap higher, supports the notion, however, corrective pullback on overbought near-term studies is under way and seen as hesitation / consolidation ahead of important barrier. Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 147.00/149.76 rally at 148.71, offers support below 149, round-figure / previous high support and is reinforced by hourly 55EMA, with stronger pullback expected to hold above 148 zone, 04 Dec trough / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Final break through 150 barrier to open initial targets at 150.47, Fibonacci 138.2% projection and 151.00, with 152.04, Fibonacci 76.4% of larger 169.95/94.10 descend, being in short-term focus.

Res: 149.49; 149.76; 150.00; 150.47
Sup: 148.71; 148.40; 148.00; 147.65




GBPUSD


Cable came under pressure last Friday and eventually broke below strong support at 1.5590, where near-term base kept the downside protected for three weeks. Daily / weekly close in red and below 1.5590 base, supports further bears towards short-term target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189, one-year rally. The third wave from 1.6522 lower top, on the price currently rides, could travel to 1.4953, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion, once psychological 1.5000 support is taken out. Near-term bears are maintained by descending daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen line at 1.5690 and only break here would delay bears for test of pivotal 1.5761, last week’s high.

Res: 1.5590; 1.5621; 1.5641; 1.5690
Sup: 1.5500; 1.5442; 1.5400; 1.5373



USDJPY

The pair continues to trend higher, with last Friday’s post-data acceleration higher, closing above 121 handle and overnight’s fresh extension, approaching psychological 122 barrier. Corrective easing on overbought near-term studies, probes below initial support at 121.30, hourly higher base, for psychological 121 support and 120.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of 119.32/121.83 upleg. Correction should find support above 120.28, Fibonacci 61.8%, to keep fresh attempts higher in play. However, overextended daily studies warn of possible stronger pullback, with no reversal signals being generated yet, but bulls may be paused in case of close below 120 handle.

Res: 121.67; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.00; 120.87; 120.28; 120.00



AUDUSD

Negative daily / weekly close keeps the pair under pressure for fresh descend below psychological 0.83 barrier, where overnight’s corrective attempts were capped. Extension of the third wave from 0.8794, through its Fibonacci 138.2% expansion target at 0.8268, now focuses 0.8178, 161.8% expansion, with psychological 0.8000 support, coming in near-term focus. Overall negative structure could be interrupted by brief corrective actions, as near-term studies are oversold. Corrective attempts above 0.83 barrier, to face 0.8415, previous low and should not exceed 0.8530, hourly lower platform, in case of extended rallies.

Res: 0.8300; 0.8354; 0.8415; 0.8465
Sup: 0.8200; 0.8178; 0.8122; 0.8100



AUD/NZD

The pair remains negative overall, with basing signals on near-term price action. The pair holds above last week’s fresh low at 1.0754, with attempts and consolidation range top at 1.0855, under way. Also, positive close of last Friday and attempts above descending daily 10SMA, support the notion, along with positively aligned near-term studies. Daily close above 1.0855, is seen as minimum requirement to signal near-term base and trigger stronger corrective action towards next strong barrier at 1.09 zone, 200SMA. Otherwise, prolonged consolidative action could be expected in case 1.0855 holds, with downside at increased risk, as primary trend is still firmly bearish.

Res: 1.0855; 1.0880; 1.0913; 1.0963
Sup: 1.0807; 1.0780; 1.0754; 1.0700




XAUUSD

Spot Gold’s near-term tone weakened after fresh easing and close below initial 1191 support. Negative close of last Friday, signals further delay of larger bulls, confirmed by strong gains and positive close of last week. The price could dip to 1181, 50% of 1142/1220 rally / daily Tenkan-sen line, before fresh attempts at psychological 1200 barrier and possible extension to pivotal 1220 barrier. Daily 20SMa at 1191, contains for now and only sustained break below 1181 handle would sideline upside attempts.

Res: 1200; 1207; 1214; 1220
Sup: 1191; 1186; 1181; 1172