Daily Market Outlook: December 29, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro remains under pressure and trades close to the bottom of near-term range and pair’s fresh low at 1.2163, after recovery attempts were capped by hourly Ichimoku cloud base, under previous low and initial barrier at 1.2244. Last Friday’s close in long red candle confirms negative stance for eventual break lower and test of 1.2042, 2012 low and psychological 1.2000 support, in extension. Session’s high at 1.2200, offers initial resistance, ahead of recovery peak at 1.2225 and 1.2244, 08 Dec former low. Only close above here would delay bears and signal basing attempt for stronger correction towards next significant obstacles at 1.2327, daily 20SMA and 1.2365, daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines.

Res: 1.2200; 1.2225; 1.2244; 1.2271
Sup: 1.2163; 1.2133; 1.2100; 1.2042




EURJPY

The pair continues to trade within narrow consolidation range, moving between daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines and the upside being reinforced by daily 20SMA. Series of Dojis, confirm near-term sideways mode, however, downside risk will remain in play while price action stays capped under 147 resistance zone. Fresh weakness below 146 support, to signal completion of 4-hour bearish flag and re-attract key 144.94 low, for resumption of pullback from 149.76 peak. Conversely, close above daily 20SMA, is required to bring fresh bulls in play for resumption of corrective rally from 144.94 low, for further retracement of 179.76/144.94 downleg.

Res: 146.95; 147.15; 147.91; 148.22
Sup: 146.46; 146.00; 145.58; 145.34




GBPUSD

Cable consolidates above fresh lows, posted on a probe below 1.55 support. Confirmation of break lower, requires close below the latter, which so far stays intact and prolongs consolidative phase. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and is expected to keep downside risk in play, while strong barrier at 1.5635, where daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen, should limit recovery attempts.
The notion is also supported by repeated negative weekly close, which maintains bearish tone for resumption of larger downtrend and test of target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend.

Res: 1.5600; 1.5635; 1.5680; 1.5713
Sup: 1.5535; 1.5500; 1.5484; 1.5450




USDJPY

The pair maintains positive tone and consolidates above 120 barrier, before final push higher and retest of near-term target at 121.83, 08 Dec peak. Bullish technicals are supportive, with daily 10/20SMA’s bull-cross formation at 119.35, offering good support and underpinning the action. Only break and close below here would sideline bulls.

Res: 120.58; 120.81; 121.50; 121.83
Sup: 120.15; 120.00; 119.57; 119.35




AUDUSD


The pair consolidates above 0.81 level, which was cracked last week on a dip to 0.8086, but daily closes above 0.81, kept the support intact for now. Repeated Dojis suggest extended consolidation, before fresh action lower, as overall picture remains bearish. Rallies should be ideally capped at 0.0.8180/8200 zone, daily Kijun-sen / former base, while extension and close above 0.8244, daily 20SMA, would sideline bears and signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, near-term focus will remain at psychological 0.8000 target.

Res: 0.8157; 0.8180; 0.8200; 0.8244
Sup: 0.8105; 0.8033; 0.8000; 0.7944




AUD/NZD

The pair continues to move lower, after entering critical support zone and approaches next target at 1.0432, low of 2005. Negative studies on all timeframes and daily/weekly close in red, favor eventual break lower and extension towards 1.0285, low of 1997.

Res: 1.0477; 1.0500; 1.0555; 1.0580
Sup: 1.0446; 1.0432; 1.0400; 1.0350




XAUUSD

Spot gold enters corrective mode after consolidation above fresh low at 1170, broke higher and returned to psychological 1200 resistance. Formation of near-term base and improved near-term studies, suggest stronger recovery action, which requires close above 1200 handle, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen / 20SMA and clearance of former range tops, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1238/1170, at 1212, to confirm higher low at 1170. Otherwise, failure at 1200 breakpoint, would keep the downside at risk, with loss of 1190, daily Kijun-sen, to risk return to 1170 low.

Res: 1200; 1204; 1212; 1220
Sup: 1192; 1190; 1183; 1179