Daily Market Outlook: December 10, 2014

EURUSD

The Euro resumed near-term corrective action off 1.2244 low and nearly fully retraced 1.2455/1.2245 downleg. The rally stalled on approach to 1.2455 breakpoint, 04 Dec high, with subsequent pullback finding temporary support at 1.2360, previous base. Daily 10/20SMA’s have been cracked but daily close occurred below both moving averages, which suggests extended consolidation before fresh attempt higher. Near-term technicals are positive and favor further upside actions, which require break and close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.2436, with extension above pivotal 1.2455 barrier, required to confirm bullish resumption and open next pivotal barrier at 1.2530, 26 Nov lower top. Underlying bearish trend, however, warns of upside rejection under pivotal barriers. Bears are expected to come in play and signal 4-hour double-top formation, in case pullback from yesterday’s recovery peak at 1.2446, extends and closes below 1.2342, 08 Dec former high and below 50% of 1.2244/1.2446 recovery rally.

Res: 1.2400; 1.2446; 1.2455; 1.2505
Sup: 1.2360; 1.2342; 1.2321; 1.2290




EURJPY

The pair trades in extended pullback from fresh high at 149.76, with fresh weakness being so far contained by ascending daily 20SMA. Yesterday’s close in red gives negative signal, but long lower shadow of the daily candle, signals hesitation of near-term bears, which require today’s close below daily 20SMA, to confirm resumption. Negative near-term studies support further corrective easing, as important 147 support, 03 Dec higher low and below Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 145.57/149.76 ascend, has been cracked on a spike to 146.79 low. Corrective attempts were so far capped at 148.35, 50% of 149.76/146.79 slide, with renewed attempt above here and daily close above 148.85, yesterday’s high and lower top, required to neutralize downside risk and turn near-term focus higher.

Res: 148.00; 148.35; 148.63; 148.85
Sup: 147.11; 147.00; 146.79; 146.40




GBPUSD


Near-term bulls are gaining traction, as the pair probed above 1.57 barrier, also cracking dynamic barrier of 10 and 20SMA’s, but so far failing to close above. Near-term price action is consolidating around 1.57 handle and holds positive tone. Sustained break and close above 1.57, would keep upside in play, for attempts at 1.5761 and pivotal 1.5823, peak of 27 Nov. Overall negative structure and yesterday’s Doji, along with failure to clear daily 10/20SMA’s, could be a limiting factors for fresh near-term bulls.

Res: 1.5700; 1.5715; 1.5724; 1.5761
Sup: 1.5650; 1.5624; 1.5600; 1.5577



USDJPY

The pair extended pullback from fresh high at 121.83, to spike to 117.93 low, where daily 20SMA contained weakness for now. Subsequent choppy trading shows no direction, with near-term studies holding bearish tone and corrective attempts off 117.93 low, being capped at 119.90, 50% retracement of 121.83/117.93 descend. Having psychological 120 barrier intact, fresh bears will remain as favored near-term scenario, with renewed attempts below 118 handle and daily close below 20SMA, required to confirm bearish resumption and open next significant support at 117.22, 27 Nov higher low. This is also required to complete Three Black Crows reversal pattern, which would signal stronger correction of 105.18/121.83 rally. Alternative scenario requires break and close above 120 handle, to ease downside pressure.

Res: 119.90; 120.10; 120.34; 121.00
Sup: 118.67; 117.93; 117.22; 117.00



AUDUSD

Yesterday’s long-legged Doji signals hesitation ahead of psychological 0.82 support, with corrective attempts above 0.83 level, suggesting further consolidation. Overall negative structure, however, sees upside attempts limited for now. Yesterday’s peak at 0.8370, reinforced by descending daily Tenkan-sen line, along with psychological 0.84 barrier, also daily 10SMA, are seen as initial breakpoints, with break and close above, to signal further recovery. Otherwise, consolidative phase is likely to precede fresh attempts lower, with 0.8051, May 2010 low and psychological 0.8000 support, being in focus.

Res: 0.8336; 0.8370; 0.8400; 0.8415
Sup: 0.8300; 0.8262; 0.8222, 0.8200





AUDNZD

The pair maintains negative tone and trades in consolidative phase, within 1.0785/1.0817 range, just above larger range floor at 1.0754. Descending daily 10SMA maintains downside pressure for eventual close below 1.0780, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.0619/1.1301 rally and break below near-term base at 1.0754, to resume larger bears off 1.13 triple-top zone, for full retracement of 1.0619/1.1301 rally. Near-term bears may be delayed in case of break and close above 1.0817, congestion top, for prolonged consolidation.

Res: 1.0808; 1.0818; 1.0843; 1.0864
Sup: 1.0761; 1.0754; 1.0700; 1.0650




XAUUSD

Yesterday’s acceleration higher marks the second strongest rally in December, after 01Dec 1142/1220 rally. Fresh bulls, which emerged from psychological 1200 level, reinforced by daily 10SMA, cleared initial 1220 barrier and broke above daily cloud top, to peak at 1238, also daily 100SMA, after clearing target at 1235, 28 Oct high. Bulls are back and firmly in play on all timeframes, signaling full retracement of 1255/1131 descend. Overbought near-term studies suggest consolidative action, before final push to 1255 peak, with previous high at 1220, along with Fibonacci 38.2% of 1186/1238 rally at 1218, offering solid support and expected to ideally contain dips. Only break below 1200 barrier would neutralize bulls.

Res: 1238; 1244; 1246; 1255
Sup: 1227; 1220; 1212; 1206