Tuesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro breaks below 1.08 near-term base, signaling an end of consolidative phase and resumption of pullback from 1.1050, 26 Mar high. The pair cracks daily 20SMA at 1.0789, looking for 1.0756/48, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0461/1.1050 rally / 4-hour Ichimoku cloud base, with further acceleration lower to open psychological 1.07 support and 1.0686, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Negative near-term technicals are supportive for further easing that requires close below daily 20SMA, to confirm double-top formation. Daily 10SMA caps today’s action at 1.0844, session high and only reversal and close above here would neutralize immediate downside risk, for attempts at pivotal barriers at 1.0924, daily Kijun-sen and 1.0944, 27 Mar high and consolidation top.

Res: 1.0844; 1.0900; 1.0924; 1.0944
Sup: 1.0756; 1.0748; 1.0700; 1.0686



EUR/JPY

Near-term tone softens, as the price falls from 130.24, session high, after repeated unsuccessful attempt above 130 barrier, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line and falling daily 20SMA. As long as the price remains below daily 20SMA, downside risk will remain in play. Violation of 129 handle, low of 27 Mar, to confirm bearish resumption and open way towards key near-term support at 126.89, 13 Mar low. Alternative scenario requires close above daily 20SMA and lift above daily Kijun-sen line at 131.24, to revive near-term bulls for attack at recent correction tops at 131.50/68 and resumption of recovery rally from 126.89 low.

Res: 129.94; 130.24; 130.40; 130.85
Sup: 129.28; 129.00; 128.75; 128.35




GBP/USD

Cable continues to tick lower and posted fresh low at 1.4750, after cracking 1.4757, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.4633/1.5160 corrective rally. Setup of near-term studies remains bearish and favors further weakness. Higher lows of 20/19 Mar at 1.4721/1.4686, mark next targets and the last obstacles en-route towards key 1.4633, low of 18 Mar, to mark full retracement of 1.4633/1.5160 upleg. Firm bearish tone remains on daily/weekly studies and supports resumption of larger downtrend, on violation of pivotal 1.4633 support. Descending daily 20SMA caps the price action of past couple of weeks, currently at 1.4921 and only reversal and close above here would neutralize downside threats and re-focus 1.50 breakpoint.

Res: 1.4814; 1.4841; 1.4920; 1.4952
Sup: 1.4750; 1.4721; 1.4686; 1.4633




USD/JPY

The pair bounced from 118.31, low of 26 Mar, where fresh easing from 122.01 found support, with yesterday’s strong acceleration from daily low at 119.09, reinforced by daily 55SMA, ending day in long green candle and sidelining downside threats. Fresh strength broke above psychological 120 barrier and so far cracked sideways-moving daily 20SMA at 120.38. Yesterday’s rally gives strong bullish signal, with near-term technicals turning positive, however, sustained break above daily 20SMA and bear-trendline, drawn off 122.01 peak at 120.50, is required to confirm reversal and neutralize risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower. Close above the latter to spark further recovery and open pivotal 121.19, lower top of 20 Mar, to fully retrace 121.19/118.31 downleg and shift focus towards key 122.01 peak. Alternatively, slide below 119.57, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 118.31/120.35 upleg, to revive downside risk.

Res: 120.35; 120.50; 121.00; 121.19
Sup: 120.00; 119.57; 119.15; 118.92




AUD/USD

The pair remains under pressure and continues to trend lower, with fresh session low at 0.7617, approaching targets at 0.7610/0.7589, 19/18 Mar lows and the last obstacles on the way to key support at 0.7558, low of 11 Mar. Yesterday’s second consecutive close in long red candle, confirm strong bearish stance for full retracement of short-term corrective phase from 0.7558 to 0.7936 and resumption of larger downtrend. Setup of technicals on a daily chart is also negative, with daily 20SMA offering initial resistance at 0.7720, ahead of daily Kijun-sen line that capped yesterday’s action at 0.7747 and only break here would sideline downside risk.

Res: 0.7663; 0.7700; 0.7720; 0.7747
Sup: 0.7610; 0.7589; 0.7558; 0.7500




AUD/NZD

The holds bearish tone, following yesterday’s repeated close in red that eventually broke below 1.02 handle and posted fresh historical low at 1.0152. Bearish setup of daily studies, with widening 20d Bollinger bands, suggests further easing towards psychological 1.01 support, with parity level coming in near-term focus. Consolidative actions are expected to be limited, with former low at 1.0216, so far capping, with stronger rallies expected to hold below daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.0263.

Res: 1.0216; 1.0263; 1.0300; 1.0337
Sup: 1.0152; 1.0100; 1.0050; 1.0000




XAU/USD

Spot Gold closed in red yesterday, after fresh extension of pullback from 1219 high, was contained at 1181; 50% retracement of 1142/1219 rally / daily 10SMA. Today’s fresh weakness breaks below 10SMA and looks for pivotal support at 1176, daily 20SMA, Close below which to signal further easing. Bears prevail on lower timeframes studies and see risk of further extension of pullback from 1219, as daily indicators are pointing lower. Supports at 1246, 20SMA and 1272, Fibonacci 61.8% of 11742/1219 rally, are seen as breakpoints.

Res: 1187; 1192; 1195; 1203
Sup: 1176; 1172; 1168; 1160