Wednesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro enters near-term consolidation phase under psychological 1.10 barrier, which was approached on yesterday’s acceleration of the bull-leg from 1.0660 higher base. The rally closed above daily 55SMA, the last obstacle on the way to key short-term barriers at 1.1034/50, 06 Apr / 26 Mar tops. Studies maintain firm bullish tone , with daily 10/20SMA’s bull-cross, underpinning the action. Expanding daily 20d Bollingers support further upside, with the upper band reinforcing initial 1.1034 resistance, with sustained break higher, expected to open daily cloud top at 1.1165 and 1.1231, Fibonacci 138.2% projection of the upleg from 1.0664, in extension. On the downside, Monday’s peak at 1.0925, marks initial support, ahead of yesterday’s low at 1.0858, also near 38.2% retracement of 1.0664/1.0989 upleg, where correction should be ideally contained. Only extension below 1.0790, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, would neutralize bulls.

Res: 1.0989; 1.1034; 1.1050; 1.1100
Sup: 1.0967; 1.0925; 1.0858; 1.0818




EUR/JPY

The cross consolidates yesterday’s fresh gains that cracked daily Ichimoku cloud base at 130.39, on extension to 130.66. Yesterday’s long green daily candle confirms strong bullish stance for eventual push towards key near-term barrier at 131.28, 06 Apr high, reinforced by daily 20d upper Bollinger band. Full retracement of 131.28/126.08 downleg is required to signal stronger correction of larger 136.68/126.08 descend. Psychological 130 support, also near former high of 24 Apr, marks initial support, ahead of, ahead of yesterday’s low at 129.34 and higher base at 129 zone, reinforced by daily 10/20SMA’s bull cross. Only break here would neutralize near-term bulls.

Res: 130.66; 131.00; 131.28; 131.50
Sup: 130.25; 130.00; 129.34; 129.00



GBP/USD

The pair maintains strong bullish tone, with fresh acceleration higher, leaving another long green candle yesterday. Fresh extension reached 1.5435, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the second wave from 1.4854, with retest of key barrier at 1.5551, peak of 26 Feb, also near Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, becoming more viable. Strong bullish tone supports further upside, with corrective actions, signaled by overbought 4-hour studies, expected to interrupt rally. Yesterday’s low at 1.5175, reinforced by daily 100SMA, offers initial support, ahead of 1.51 zone, near daily Ichimoku cloud top and mid-point of the upleg from 1.4854, loss of which to sideline bulls.

Res: 1.5435; 1.5400; 1.5427; 1.5478
Sup: 1.5300; 1.5259; 1.5175; 1.5100



USD/JPY

The pair holds above two-day base at 118.76, with extended consolidation expected to precede fresh weakness. Near-term studies are negative and favor further downside, supported by eventual close below daily cloud base at 118.92, which now marks initial barrier. Final push through key 118.52/31 supports is required to signal an end of short-term congestion and resume descend from 122.01, 10 Mar peak. Daily 10SMA offers the next barrier at 119.16, while only break above descending daily 20SMA at 119.47, would sideline near-term bears and shift focus towards pivotal 120 barrier, signaling prolonged sideways trading.

Res: 118.92; 119.16; 119.47; 119.72
Sup: 118.74; 118.52; 118.31; 118.00



AUD/USD

The pair accelerated sharply yesterday and eventually broke and closed above psychological 0.80 barrier. Extended third wave that commenced from 0.7681, 21 Apr higher low, peaked yesterday at 0.8026, with focus at the next target at 0.8093, its Fibonacci 138.2% expansion. Near-term consolidation is under way, with extended dips, seen on overbought 4-hour conditions, facing initial support at 0.7936/26, former peak of 24 Mar / daily cloud top and expected to find ground above 0.7841, previous high of 17 Apr / near 50% of 0.7681/0.8026 upleg.

Res: 0.8026; 0.8093; 0.8163; 0.8207
Sup: 0.7977; 0.7936; 0.7894; 0.7841



AUD/NZD

The cross resumes recovery rally from 1.0033/16 double-bottom and approaches psychological 1.04 barrier, also Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.0526/1.0016 descend, reinforced by daily 100SMA, on yesterday’s strong rally. Firm bullish tone favors further upside, with break above 1.04 barrier, to open 1.0435, lower top of 18 Mar, with extension to 1.0460, Fibonacci 138.2% projection of the rally from 1.0016, seen next. Today’s corrective easing so far remains supported by daily cloud base at 1.0351, guarding 1.0337, lower top of 26 Mar / former breakpoint and yesterday’s low at 1.0258, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0033/1.0395 rally, where dips should be ideally contained.

Res: 1.0388; 1.0400; 1.0435; 1.0460
Sup: 1.0351; 1.0337; 1.0300; 1.0258



XAU/USD

Two-legged recovery rally from 1175, 24 Apr fresh five-week low, peaked at 1215 yesterday, cracking pivotal 1210 resistance zone and closing briefly above the barrier. Near-term bulls are firmly in play and favor fresh attempts higher, after completion of consolidative phase under 1215 high. Also, setup of daily studies remains bullish and supports eventual attack at key barrier at 1224, 06 Apr peak, daily Ichimoku cloud top / daily 200SMA, break of which to confirm an end of short-term directionless trading and signal formation of fresh uptrend. However, contracting daily 20d Bollinger bands, require caution, signaling prolonged consolidation, with downside to be ideally protected by daily 20SMA at psychological 1200 support.

Res: 1210; 1215; 1220; 1224
Sup: 1207; 1200; 1195; 1190