Monday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro holds positive near-term tone, developed on acceleration from 1.0612, 19 Mar higher base, with Friday’s high at 1.0881, being approached on today’s gap-higher opening. The pair was so far unable to sustain gains, reversing below 1.08 handle, on a consolidative action, which should be ideally contained at 1.0750 zone, daily Tenkan-sen line and 50% of 1.0612/1.0881 upleg, before fresh attempts higher. The notion is supported by positive daily/weekly close. On the other side, negative tone prevails on daily chart studies, with descending daily 20SMA, capping rallies for now. Close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0891, is required to expose post-Fed’s peak at 1.1034 and confirm recovery on a break higher. Alternative scenario sees confirmation of hourly double-top at 1.0881/66 on a break below 1.0750 handle, with extension below 1.0715/00, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0612/1.0881 rally / psychological support, to confirm reversal.

Res: 1.0832; 1.0866; 1.0881; 1.0918
Sup: 1.0782; 1.0750; 1.0715; 1.0694




EUR/JPY

The pair comes under pressure after last Friday’s upside rejection at 130.69 and Asian trading unable to hold above psychological 130 support, as overall action remains capped by descending daily 20SMA. Near-term studies are losing traction, with immediate risk seen on loss of psychological 129 handle and 128.84, daily 10SMA, to confirm reversal and expose pivotal supports at 128.35/25, lows of 19/18 Mar, as overall bears remain intact and see risk of return to key support at 126.89, in case of losing 128.35/25 handles. On the upside, 130 marks initial barrier, ahead of 130.27, Asian high and Friday’s peak at 130.69, above which to re-focus key 131.68, peak of 18 Mar.

Res: 130.00; 130.27; 130.69; 131.00
Sup: 129.00; 128.72; 128.35; 128.25




GBP/USD


Cable continues to hesitate under psychological 1.50 barrier, as Asian trading peaked at 1.4971, leaving last Friday’s top at 1.4987 intact for extended consolidative action. Structure of near-term studies remains positive and keeps the upside focused for now, with scenario of fresh attempts above 1.50 barrier, being supported by positive close on daily/weekly chart. Break above 1.50 is required to clear 1.5092, daily 20SMA / Kijun-sen line, to confirm recovery extension and 1.5160, 18 Mar peak. Consolidative action should be ideally contained at 1.4870, daily 10SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4686/1.4987 rally, to keep near-term bulls intact. Otherwise, further easing below psychological 1.48 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, to weaken the structure for further easing towards higher lows at 1.4720/1.4686, lows of 20/19 Mar.

Res: 1.4958; 1.4987; 1.5008; 1.5032
Sup: 1.4870; 1.4837; 1.4800; 1.4720




USD/JPY


The pair continues to move lower, following last Friday’s recovery rejection at 121.19 and subsequent acceleration lower that closed below daily 20SMA at 120.35, as well as psychological 120 support, marking daily/weekly close in long red candle. Fresh weakness reached 119.73, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 119.28/121.19 rally, looking for full retracement of the upleg, with loss of 119.28 handle, expected to open higher base at 118.22/29, lows of 17/20 Feb. Near-term studies are bearish, with south-heading daily studies supporting further correction of 115.83/122.01 bull-leg. Conversely, regain of 121.19, last Friday’s peak, to neutralize and re-focus 121.65/83 barriers and key 122.01 resistance, high of 10 Mar.

Res: 120.11; 120.35; 120.60; 121.19
Sup: 119.74; 119.66; 119.24; 119.00




AUD/USD

The pair maintains positive near-term tone, with fresh acceleration off 0.7610, 19 Mar low, approaching 0.7845, 18 Mar recovery peak and former peaks at 0.7850 zone that mark strong resistance zone. Positive daily/weekly close supports the notion of further recovery, with close above 0.7850 barriers, reinforced by daily 55SMA, required to confirm and re-focus pivotal 0.7911 barrier, high of 26 Feb. Daily 20SMA at 0.7733, offers solid support and should ideally contain corrective action, while break here and loss of psychological 0.77 support, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, would revive near-term bears and mark repeated upside rejection.

Res: 0.7832; 0.7845; 0.7858; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7766; 0.7733; 0.7700; 0.7674




AUD/NZD

The cross maintains strong bearish tone and posts fresh lows at 1.0216, following overnight’s acceleration from psychological 1.03 barrier, where recovery attempts were capped. Studies remain bearish on all timeframes and favor attempt through 1.02 support that would open psychological 1.0000 support in the near-term. However, fresh weakness may be preceded by corrective rally, as near-term studies are oversold. Asian high at 1.03, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0435/1.0216 downleg, should ideally cap rallies, with extension higher expected to find strong resistance at 1.0352, former low of 12 Mar, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0435/1.0216.

Res: 1.0300; 1.0325; 1.0352; 1.0400
Sup: 1.0216; 1.0200; 1.0150; 1.0100




XAU/USD

Spot Gold closed in a positive mode on daily/weekly chart, confirming near-term recovery off fresh low at 1142. Friday’s rally peaked at 1187, with daily close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1179, supporting further recovery. Next targets lay at 1190/92, former lows of 23/24 Feb / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1223/1142 descend, ahead of psychological 1200 barrier and 1205, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1307/1142 descend. Initial support lies at 1177, former high of 19 Mar, with 1168/65, 20 Mar hourly higher base / daily Tenkan-sen line, expected to ideally contain corrective dips.

Res: 1187; 1192; 1200; 1205
Sup: 1180; 1177; 1168; 1165