Wednesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro trades in near-term neutral mode, with price action entrenched within daily 10 and 20SMA’s. Yesterday’s attempts lower and brief probe below daily 10SMA was short-lived, as the price found footstep at 1.0658, keeping intact pivotal Fibonacci 61.8% support at 1.0644. Near-term indecision is confirmed by yesterday’s long-legged Doji, with Asian trading also being entrenched within tight Doji. Yesterday’s price amplitude between 1.0658 and 1.0780, marks initial range, with break of either side, required to signal fresh near-term direction. However, overall tone remains bearish and is expected to keep the downside under pressure, while last Friday’s recovery top at 1.0847 stays intact.

Res: 1.0747; 1.0780; 1.0800; 1.0847
Sup: 1.0715; 1.0682; 1.0658; 1.0644




EUR/JPY

Near-term price action is trades within 127.44/128.75 congestion, with immediate downside risk being averted on yesterday’s quick recovery after probe below daily 10SMA. Technicals of lower timeframes hold positive tone, with price action holding in the upper part of the range, seeing scope for attack at pivotal barrier at 128.75, congestion top, reinforced by descending daily 20SMA. In case of repeated upside rejection, prolonged sideways trading is expected to be favored near-term scenario, however, the downside risk would increase, as daily studies are bearish. Loss of initial support of daily 10SMA at 127.83, to signal fresh weakness, while break below range floor is required to confirm bears back in play.

Res: 128.75; 128.88; 129.29; 129.75
Sup: 128.21; 127.83; 127.44; 127.10



GBP/USD


Cable trades without clear near-term direction, after yesterday’s extension of the pullback from 1.5051 peak, was contained by sideways-moving daily Kijun-sen line, keeping pivotal daily 20SMA at 1.4836, intact. Subsequent bounce averted immediate downside risk, ending the day in positive mode. On the other side, long-legged yesterday’s daily candle shows hesitation. sidelines downside risk. Near-term studies regained positive tone , with downside risk sidelined for now. Sustained break above yesterday’s high at 1.4871, is required to signal higher low formation and shift near-term focus higher. Otherwise, the price may continue consolidative phase. Only break below yesterday’s low at 1.4854 and daily 20SMA, would bring near-term bears fully in play.

Res: 1.4971; 1.5008; 1.5051; 1.5100
Sup: 1.4911; 1.4854; 1.4836; 1.4800



USD/JPY

The pair holds positive near-term tone, after extension of bounce from 118.52 low closed few ticks above daily 20 SMA. Consolidative phase under fresh recovery high at 119.82 is under way, with dips to be ideally contained at 119.28 higher low / daily 20SMA and near Fibonacci 38.2% of 118.52/119.82 upleg, before final push towards psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 120.83/118.52 descend. Break here to confirm recovery and expose key near-term barrier at 120.83. Conversely, break and close below daily 10SMA, would soften near-term tone and sideline upside attempts.

Res: 119.82; 120.00; 120.28; 120.72
Sup: 119.28; 119.12; 118.95; 118.52



AUD/USD

The pair accelerates higher after dipping to 0.7681 yesterday, where pullback from 0.7841 recovery peak, was contained by daily 20SMA. Today’s strong rally penetrated into daily cloud and broke above 0.7770, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7824/0.7681 downleg, with action being underpinned by ascending daily 10SMA that formed 10/20SMA’s bullish cross at 0.7691. Bullish near-term studies support further recovery towards next targets, psychological 0.7800 barrier, ahead of lower platform at 0.7825 zone and key 0.7841, peak of 17 Apr. Corrective easing should be ideally contained at 0.7752, 21 Apr former low.

Res: 0.7791; 0.7825; 0.7841; 0.7900
Sup: 0.7752; 0.7700; 0.7681; 0.7663




AUD/NZD

The cross left hourly double-bottom at 1.0033, before strong acceleration higher that reached 1.0126 so far, 50% of 1.0217/1.0033 downleg / daily 10SMA, the first pivotal barrier, with consolidative action being under way. Positive tone of hourly studies sees scope for further recovery attempts, with break and close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0154, required to signal stronger recovery. On the other side, studies of larger timeframes remain bearish and see limited upside attempts, with increased risk of lower top formation seen on recovery rejection under daily 20SMA. Overall, consolidative action is expected to precede final attack at parity and resume larger downtrend on break here. Only regain of 1.0217, near-term recovery top and lower platform, would signal stronger recovery and double-bottom formation.

Res: 1.0114; 1.0126; 1.0154; 1.0200
Sup: 1.0090; 1.0068; 1.0033; 1.0016



XAU/USD

Spot gold remains entrenched in near-term range, established between 1183 and 1210, with hourly structure improving on fresh rally and yesterday’s positive close above 1200 handle and price action holding above bull-trendline off 1142 low. However, neutral tone of 4-hour and daily chart studies requires break above pivotal 1210 barrier, to signal upside resumption. Conversely, downside risk is expected to increase, in case of penetration through trendline support at 1193 and bears to come fully in play on violation of range floor at 1183.

Res: 1204; 1208; 1210; 1214
Sup: 1199; 1193; 1191; 1187