Friday's Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro reduces pace and enters consolidative phase, following high volatility in past sessions. Yesterday’s Bearish Inside Day maintains overall bearish tone, while near-term technicals are in neutral/positive mode with contracting hourly 20d Bollinger bands, suggesting further consolidation in the near-term. Hopes of Greece/EU agreement are seen as supportive factor, however, break above near-term narrow consolidation, is required to signal fresh strength, with sustained break above daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.0748, to confirm. Yesterday’s high at 1.0918, reinforced by descending daily 20SMA, marks next breakpoint, close above which to confirm fresh bulls for renewed attempts above 1.10 barrier. Session’s low at 1.0950, reinforced by daily 10SMA, marks initial support, with break here and 1.0612, low of the pullback from 1.1034 high, to revive bears.

Res: 1.0693; 1.0748; 1.0773; 1.0795
Sup: 1.0650; 1.0612; 1.0580; 1.0550




EUR/JPY

The pair consolidates above yesterday’s low at 128.35, after nearly fully retracing rally from 128.25, low of 18 Mar, to 131.68, post Fed’s peak. Yesterday’s Inside Day, signals fresh weakness, as the price action remains under daily 10SMA and near-term studies are negatively aligned. Break and close below 128.25 to confirm bearish resumption towards 128, hourly higher base and full retracement of 126.89/131.68 corrective phase. Larger picture studies remain bearish and support the notion, while only regain of daily 20SMA at 131.28, would improve and signal fresh recovery.

Res: 129.00; 129.65; 130.02; 130.83
Sup: 128.70; 128.35; 128.25; 128.00



GBP/USD

Cable consolidates above yesterday’s low at 1.4686, reached on a pullback from 1.5160, post-Fed’s strong rally, with near-term studies being negatively aligned and keeping risk of fresh attempts lower in play. Yesterday’s close in red and bearish setup on a daily studies, keeps the downside in focus. Hourly 20EMA so far caps consolidative action, with next significant barriers at 1.4870 zone, daily 10SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5160/1.4686 descend and psychological 1.49 barrier, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line. Break here would bring more positive tone in play and signal further recovery attempts. Otherwise, the downside will remain vulnerable, with violation of pivotal 1.4686 support, expected to open key 1.4633, 18 Mar low, to fully retrace 1.4633/1.5160 rally and signal resumption of larger downtrend.

Res: 1.4775; 1.4800; 1.4870; 1.4923
Sup: 1.4700; 1.4686; 1.4633; 1.4600




USD/JPY


The pair recovered the largest part of Wednesday’s 121.39/119.28 fall, on a bounce to 121.02, where rallies were capped by daily 10SMA for now. Former pivotal support at 120.60, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen, holds near-term consolidation, keeping hopes of fresh attempts higher. Overall bullish structure keeps the upside focused, with sustained break above 121 barrier required to open key barriers at 121.83/122.01 for retest. However, near-term studies are still weak and 120.60 support remains vulnerable. Further easing should be ideally contained above 120.36, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 119.28/121.02 rally, to avert risk of fresh weakness that would revive bears in case of close below psychological 120 support.

Res: 121.02; 121.39; 121.65; 121.83
Sup: 120.60; 120.36; 120.15; 119.66



AUD/USD

The pair bounced off yesterday’s low at 0.7610, sidelining scenario of full retracement of post-Fed 0.7589/0.7845 rally. Instead, rally through daily 10SMA, approaches 0.77 barrier, daily Tenkan-sen line / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7845/0.7610 downleg, break of which is required to improve still weak near-term studies and trigger stronger recovery. Further rallies then require close above daily 20SMA at 0.7728, to confirm the notion. Conversely, upside rejection is expected to confirm overall bearish picture and spark fresh weakness towards 0.7610 and 0.7589 lows and focus key support at 0.7558, low of 11 Mar.

Res: 0.7700; 0.7728; 0.7755; 0.7806
Sup: 0.7657; 0.7642; 0.7610; 0.7589




AUD/NZD


The cross remains under pressure and sees scope for further weakness, following yesterday’s repeated close in long red candle and today’s probe below psychological 1.03 support. Strong bearish setup of daily technicals keeps the downside in focus, with break through 1.0279, 05 Mar low, expected to trigger fresh acceleration lower. Prolonged consolidation above key supports should be expected before commencing fresh leg lower, Session high at 1.0330 marks initial resistance, while only rally above 1.0382, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0435/1.0295 downleg, would sideline near-term bears.

Res: 1.0330; 1.0350; 1.0382; 1.0435
Sup: 1.0295; 1.0279; 1.0250; 1.0200




XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in near-term consolidative phase between 1177, fresh recovery high and 1159, yesterday’s low and consolidation range floor, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line / 20SMA. Bullish near-term studies keep focus at the upside, with 1159 support required to hold. Fresh attempts through 1177 high, to open 1180, daily 20SMA, close above which to confirm recovery and open way for further retracement of 1223/1142 descend, as the yellow metal is poised for positive weekly close, after two weeks of strong losses. Daily Kijun-sen line at 1189 and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, mark next barriers. Conversely, close below 1159 handle to weaken the structure and risk fresh weakness.

Res: 1173; 1177; 1180; 1189
Sup: 1168; 1164; 1159; 1156