Daily Market Outlook: February 20, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro is at the back foot in the near-term trading, following yesterday’s repeated rejection at 1.1450. Subsequent slide for about 100 pips was contained by daily 20SMA that acts as initial support, keeping pivotal 1.1320 and 1.1260 supports intact. On the larger picture, range trading remains in play, as the pair awaits today’s continuation of EU/Greece talks. Near-term tone is neutral negative, while daily/weekly setup remains bearish. Without trigger, required to break out of 1.1260/1.1532 range, further sideways mode is expected to be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 1.1395; 1.1425; 1.1450; 1.1497
Sup: 1.1350; 1.1320; 1.1260; 1.1220




EUR/JPY

The cross remains in near-term consolidative phase, confirmed by yesterday’s Doji and trading around 135 handle. Neutral tone prevails on near-term studies, while daily technicals are mixed and, together with narrowing Bollingers supporting prolonged sideways trade. Bull-trendline, connecting series of higher lows, lies at 134.55 and along with daily 20SMA at 134.48, marks strong support, ahead of pivotal 133.92, 17 Feb low and floor of near-term consolidative range. Close above daily Tenkan-sen line, currently at 135.30, is required to keep alive initial bullish signal, given by bull-cross of daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines. However, weekly Doji is seen as likely scenario that confirms near-term indecision and break of either side to signal fresh direction.

Res: 135.30; 135.93; 136.22; 136.68
Sup: 134.93; 134.50; 133.92; 133.66




GBP/USD


Cable trades in near-term consolidative phase under fresh high at 1.5478, with psychological 1.54 support, holding for now. Overall bullish tone keeps the focus shifted towards the upside, with daily cloud top at 1.5526, marking the next target, once rally resumes. Weekly Three White Soldiers reversal pattern has been completed and bulls could extend to pivotal 1.5600/ 18, daily 100SMA, lower top of 31 Dec 2014. The action is underpinned by rising daily 10SMA, which is about to cross above daily 55SMA at 1.5346 and daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.5336.

Res: 1.5463; 1.5478; 1.5500; 1.5526
Sup: 1.5400; 1.5375; 1.5340; 1.5315



USD/JPY

Near-term studies are neutral, as the price action moves within narrow range, supported by daily 20SMA and capped by daily 10SMA. Positively aligned daily studies keep near-term focus at pivotal 119.40 lower platform, break of which to open psychological 120 barrier and fresh high at 120.46. Otherwise, repeated upside failures would keep at risk pivotal 118.25/15 support zone, 16/17 Feb higher lows / Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 upleg / daily Kijun-sen line. Break here to trigger further retracement of the rally. However, prolonged consolidation would be expected in case the price remains within a narrow range that would result in repeated weekly Doji and signal further indecision.

Res: 119.16; 119.40; 119.60; 120.00
Sup: 118.42; 118.25; 118.15; 117.71



AUD/USD

The pair regained 0.7800, psychological barrier and daily 20SMA, after easing from 0.7841 high, found footstep at 0.7756, as sideway’s-moving daily 10SMA, keeps the downside protected for now. Near-term action is expected to hold within 0.7756/0.7841 consolidative range, to protect pivotal 0.7874, 06 Feb high intact, while 20SMA continues to cap. Only close above 0.7874 would improve and signal stronger recovery.

Res: 0.7829; 0.7841; 0.7874; 0.7900
Sup: 0.7781; 0.7756; 0.7723; 0.7700




AUD/NZD


Yesterday’s Hammer gives positive signals after the pair probed below 1.03 support. Fresh strength posts new session highs, with improved hourly studies, keeping focus at pivotal 1.0390 barrier, high 17 Feb. Daily close above here is required to confirm bullish signal and trigger stronger correction. Filling Monday’s gap on extension above psychological 1.0400 barrier, would open targets at 1.0450, lower top of 13 Feb and 1.0486, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0792/1.0296 descend. Conversely, close below 1.0390 to negate bullish attempts and re-focus initial supports at 1.0296/85, for bearish resumption of larger downtrend.

Res: 1.0390; 1.0425; 1.0450; 1.0486
Sup: 1.0352; 1.0327; 1.0296; 1.0285




XAU/USD

Spot Gold failed to sustain recovery rally from fresh low at 1197, as break above initial 1216 barrier was capped by descending daily 10AMA at 1222. Subsequent easing to 1205 that offers temporary support, weakened near-term structure, as the price penetrated into daily cloud. Near-term risk is shifted to the downside again, with yellow metal poised for strong bearish weekly close that will be the fourth consecutive weekly close in red, since reversal from 1307 peak commenced. Near-term focus is at psychological 1200 support, also daily cloud base, ahead of 1197, fresh low of 18 Feb. Daily close below here to confirm lower top and fresh extension of the downtrend from 1307, with key 1167 support, low of 02 Jan, expected to come in focus. Prolonged consolidation to be expected while 1200/1197 supports hold, with descending 10SMA expected to limit stronger upside attempts. Only close above yesterday’s high at 1222 would neutralize bears.

Res: 1217; 1220; 1222; 1229
Sup: 1205; 1200; 1197; 1186