Daily Market Outlook: January 20, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro continues to move in directionless mode and returns below 1.16 handle, following yesterday’s probe above, which was capped under initial barrier at 1.1650, 16 Jan recovery high and 50% retracement of 1.1845/1.1458 downleg, reinforced by falling daily Tenkan-sen line. Bearish setup of larger timeframes studies keeps the pair pressured, while neutral/negative near-term studies see scope for prolonged consolidative phase, awaiting this week’s important releases, which could be a trigger for resumption of larger downtrend. Targets at 1.1375, Nov 2003 low and 1.1210, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.8225/1.6039, 2000/2008 ascend, remain in near-term focus. Break above 1.1650 pivot and violation of daily 10SMA at 1.1722, would delay bears and open breakpoints at 1.1870; lower top of 12 Jan and daily 20SMA at 1.1910, in alternative scenario.

Res: 1.1637; 1.1650, 1.1700; 1.1722
Sup: 1.1550; 1.1500; 1.1458; 1.1400




EUR/JPY

The pair entered near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 134.68, posted last Friday, with probe above 137 barrier, marking 61.8% retracement of 138.77/134.68 downleg, on extension to 137.20 so far. Improved near-term technicals favor further recovery, as the second day positive close supports the notion. Sustained break and close above 137.20, to complete reversal pattern and signal further recovery towards, daily 10SMA at 138.41 and pivotal 15 Jan lower top at 138.77, above which to trigger stronger correction towards 140 barrier, 200SMA, where rallies should be ideally capped.

Res: 137.80; 138.41; 138.77; 139.44
Sup: 136.35; 136.00; 135.40; 135.11




GBP/USD

Near-term price action came under pressure and moved lower, shifting focus to the low of 08 Jan at 1.5032, following recovery attempt rejection at 1.5267, as corrective rally failed to sustain break above 1.5256, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5618/1.5032 downleg. Return and close below daily 10SMA confirms bearish stance of near-term studies, as overall picture remains negative and keeps focus at psychological 1.50 support and key target at 1.4820 higher base and lows of 2013. To revive near-term bulls, fresh strength and close above 1.5317, 05 Jan lower top, is required.

Res: 1.5116; 1.5177; 1.5232; 1.5267
Sup: 1.5055; 1.5032; 1.5000; 1.4910



USD/JPY

The pair resumes recovery rally from 115.83 higher low, after yesterday’s Doji, with extension above psychological 118 barrier, looking for test of daily Ichimoku cloud top at 118.73 and daily 20AMA at 119, close above which to confirm higher low and open way for further recovery. Daily studies are gaining traction, with bullish near-term technicals, seeing scope for fresh rallies. Initial supports lay at 118.00 and 117.75, former high of 16 Jan, with higher low at 116.50, also Fibonacci 38.2% of the rally from 115.83 to 118.51, expected to ideally contain.

Res: 118.73; 119.00; 119.57; 119.95
Sup: 118.00; 117.75; 117.50; 116.90



AUD/USD

The pair is in near-term directionless mode, signaled with double-Doji, following recovery rejection at 0.8293 and subsequent easing, which was so far contained at mid-point of entire recovery rally from 0.8031 to 0.8293, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Mixed near-term studies suggest further sideways movements, with break of initial boundaries, required to establish fresh direction. North-heading daily indicators are expected to support price action, while daily 20SMA holds.

Res: 0.8225; 0.8253; 0.8293; 0.8322
Sup: 0.8158; 0.8131; 0.8066; 0.8000




AUD/NZD

Near-term price action moves higher and broke above consolidation tops, probing levels above psychological 1.06 barrier. Positive near-term studies support fresh attack at 1.0636, 15 Jan rejection, with sustained break to signal resumption of recovery rally from 1.0350 low, towards immediate target at 1.0668, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0864/1.0350 downleg. Improving daily studies, with daily 10/20SMA’s bull-cross underpinning near-term action, are supportive for fresh recovery attempts. Break above 1.0668 to open psychological 1.07 barrier and daily 55SMA at 1.0742, in extension.

Res: 1.0636; 1.0668; 1.0700; 1.0742
Sup: 1.0580; 1.0530; 1.0506; 1.0480





XAU/USD

Spot gold maintains strong bullish tone and consolidates recent strong rallies that peaked at 1281, moving within narrow consolidative range. The price eyes next targets at 1294/96, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1344/1131 descend / lower top of 28 Aug 2014 and psychological 1300 barrier in extension. Range floor at 1272, offers initial support, ahead of previous high at 1266, with extended corrective dips, expected to hold above key support at 1255, previous peak / 200SMA. Only break here would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 1281; 1296; 1300; 1319
Sup: 1272; 1266; 1255; 1244