Wednesday's Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD

EUR/USD

Near-term price action trades in a sideways mode, entrenched within 100-pips range, after yesterday’s short-lived break above initial 1.0630 barrier, stalled at 1.0650. Consolidative action is for now supported at 1.0550 higher base, also 50% of 1.0461/1.0650 corrective rally, with break here to offset positive signals, given on past two-day positive closing. Near-term technicals maintain neutral tone, while overall picture remains bearish, with initial signals of reversal on oversold daily studies, being generated. Rally and close above pivotal 1.0682, 12 Mar high and 50% retracement of 1.0905/1.0461 descend, reinforced by descending daily 10SMA, is required to confirm near-term bottom and spark fresh recovery towards next barriers at 1.0735, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and 1.0746, daily Tenkan-sen line.

Res: 1.0612; 1.0650; 1.0682; 1.0735
Sup: 1.0550; 1.0520; 1.0500; 1.0461




EUR/JPY

The pair remains in near-term corrective rally off fresh low at 126.89, with yesterday’s crack of pivotal 129.05 barrier, 13 Mar lower top, signaling further upside. Hourly studies are positive, with 4-hour technicals gaining bullish tone and positive daily close supporting the notion. Near-term consolidation is under way and expected to hold above 128 higher base, to keep fresh bulls in play. Fresh attempts above yesterday’s high at 129.14, to open daily 10SMA at 129.38 and daily Tenkan-sen at 129.72, close above which to confirm recovery and open psychological 130 barrier and former low at 130.13. Conversely, loss of 128 handle would sideline bulls and signal stronger pullback.

Res: 129.14; 129.38; 129.72; 130.13
Sup: 128.40; 128.10; 127.65; 127.30



GBP/USD

Near-term price action is at the back foot, following yesterday’s recovery action repeated rejection that left hourly double-top at 1.4850 and subsequent easing nearly fully retraced 1.4697/1.4870 corrective rally. Near-term studies are weak, with strong bearish tone on daily / weekly technicals, seeing increased risk of eventual break through 1.4697 handle, to resume larger downtrend towards next targets at 1.4371/44, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3501/1.7189 rally / low of June 2010. Only fresh strength above 1.4850 lower platform would ease bear-pressure, with close above next strong barrier at 1.4900, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5025/1.4697 downleg, required to confirm recovery resumption.

Res: 1.4800; 1.4850; 1.4900; 1.4948
Sup: 1.4722; 1.4697; 1.4650; 1.4600




USD/JPY


The pair continues to trade in a sideways mode, with near-term studies holding neutral tone and the third consecutive Doji confirming indecision. Consolidation range tops at 121.65 and former high at 121.83, mark initial barriers. Overall tone, however, remains bullish and keeps the upside in focus, with consolidative phase being for now contained at strong 120.60 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 118.29/122.01 upleg. Initial support lies at 121.10, 4-hour cloud top and ascending daily 10SMA, ahead of daily Tenkan-sen line at 120.95. Break below consolidation floor at 120.60 would signal stronger pullback and open former highs at 120.46/25, ahead of psychological 120 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 116.86/122.01 rally, loss of which to confirm reversal. Otherwise, close above initial barriers at 121.83/122.01, to signal resumption of larger uptrend towards 124.14, June 2007 high.

Res: 121.65; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.10; 120.95; 120.60; 120.46


AUD/USD

The pair is gaining negative near-term tone on a probe below near-term consolidative range floor at 0.7609. Yesterday’s close in red signals fresh weakness that requires extension below 0.76 handle, for return to key near-term support at 0.7558, low of 11 Mar, where daily 20d lower Bollinger band lies. Bearish daily studies favor fresh weakness, with clear break below 0.7558, to confirm resumption of larger downtrend. Near-term consolidation range tops are reinforced by falling daily 10SMA and only close above here would sideline increasing downside risk and signal renewed attempts towards pivotal 0.7730 lower top of 12 Mar, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7843/0.7558 downleg.

Res: 0.7627; 0.7663; 0.7678; 0.7730
Sup: 0.7600; 0.7558; 0.7537; 0.7500




AUD/NZD

The cross regained traction on yesterday’s bounce from fresh low at 1.0322 that peaked at 1.0423 and formed bullish Outside Day patter that signals further recovery. Close above daily 20SMA and today’s fresh rallies, support the notion, as higher low is forming at 1.0322. Fresh strength above 1.0447, 4-hour cloud top and former high and recovery rejection at 1.0450, is required to confirm recovery and shift focus higher. Near-term studies are positive, with daily indicators heading north and being supportive for fresh rallies. Daily 20SMA offers good support at 1.04 zone and should stay intact, to keep fresh bulls in play.

Res: 1.0435; 1.0450; 1.0500; 1.0526
Sup: 1.0400; 1.0365; 1.0322; 1.0300




XAU/USD

Spot Gold ended yesterday’s bumpy ride in red, after rallies were capped at 1159 and attempts below former low and consolidation range floor at 1147, spiked to 1142, low of 01 Dec 2014. Near-term structure weakened, despite daily close that occurred above the previous range bottom. Fresh attempts lower focus yesterday’s low at 1142, ahead of 1137, Fibonacci 261.8% projection of the downleg from 1223, with key med-term support at 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014, being in near-term focus. Bearish setup of daily studies supports the notion of full retracement of 1131/1307 ascend, with indicators continuing to point lower, despite oversold conditions. Initial resistance lies at 1152, session high, ahead of yesterday’s peak at 1159, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA and former range tops at 1163/66, break of which to sideline immediate downside pressure.

Res: 1147; 1152; 1159; 1163
Sup: 1142; 1137; 1131; 1120