Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD

EUR/USD

The euro failed to sustain break above 1.14 handle, with double rejection at 1.1443 on 13 Feb and 1.1429 yesterday, being followed by quick descend, which now pressures psychological 1.13 support. With no solution on Greece/EU talks so far, downside pressure is rising. Near-term focus turns towards pivotal 1.1260 higher base and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1096/1.1532 rally and eventual break lower to expose key support at 1.1096, low of 26 Jan. Bearish setup of near-term studies and price’s return below daily 20SMA, support the notion. However, prolonged consolidation could be expected while 1.1260 base holds, with Friday’s high at 1.1443, marking the first pivot.

Res: 1.1378; 1.1429; 1.1443; 1.1470
Sup: 1.1319; 1.1300; 1.1260; 1.1222




EUR/JPY

The cross lost traction and accelerated lower, after failure to hold above 135 handle. Break below trendline support at 134.85, daily Tenkan-sen at 134.60 and yesterday’s, third consecutive close in red at daily 20SMA, weakens near-term structure. Hourly technicals turned bearish on a probe below 134 support, with negative setup of 4-hour studies, keeping the downside favored for now. Pivotal support lies at 133.66, 09 Feb higher low, loss of which to confirm reversal off 136.68. Extended consolidation could be expected before fresh attempts lower, while the latter holds. Alternative scenario, requires regain and close and close above 135.54, lower top of 16 Feb and near Fibonacci 61.8% of 136.68/133.92 downleg, to neutralize downside risk.

Res: 135.00; 135.54; 136.00; 136.32
Sup: 134.13; 133.92; 133.66; 133.40




GBP/USD


Cable consolidates around daily cloud base at 1.5360, following fresh extension of larger rally that peaked at 1.5438. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day comes as negative signal, amid overall bullish tone, seeing risk of recovery rally stall in case the price closes below 1.53, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5207/1.5438 ascend. Otherwise, close above cloud base and regain of 1.54 handle, would be a positive signal for fresh attempts higher. Break above 1.5438 high to open 1.5460, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.5618/1.4950 and 1.5526, daily cloud top, in extension.

Res: 1.5385; 1.5400; 1.5438; 1.5460
Sup: 1.5337; 1.5300; 1.5262; 1.5207




USD/JPY

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, after reversal from 120.46 high found support at 118.25, Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 upleg, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Consolidation is for now entrenched between daily 20 and 55SMA’s, laying at 118.25 and 118.75, respectively, with yesterday’s Doji, signaling near-term indecision. Bearish near-term studies favor further easing, with break below 118.25 and daily Tenkan-sen at 118.15, expected to open 117.71, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement, next. On the other side, positive tone still exists on a daily chart and cannot rule out basing attempt and fresh recovery, which requires break above 118.75, daily 55SMA and 119.03, daily Ichimoku cloud top, to be confirmed.

Res: 118.75; 119.03; 119.60; 119.86
Sup: 118.25; 118.15; 117.71; 117.15



AUD/USD

The pair holds positive tone in near-term, as recovery rally off 0.7642 higher low, probes above psychological 0.78 barrier. On the other side, yesterday’s Doji sows no significant movements on the bigger picture, with bears prevailing and descending daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7827, limiting upside attempts for now. Break here and pivotal 0.7874, 06 Feb lower top, is required to confirm break above near-term range and signal stronger recovery towards pivotal 0.8023/31, high of 28 Jan / low of 07 Jan. Otherwise, expect prolonged consolidation, while the price action remains within current range, with downside risk to remain in play.

Res: 0.7827; 0.7874; 0.7900; 0.7958
Sup: 0.7740; 0.7722; 0.7700; 0.7667




AUD/NZD


The pair remains under pressure after losing pivotal 1.0350 support, with near-term consolidative phase, off fresh low at 1.0327, under way and expected to precede fresh push lower. Completion of 1.0350/1.0791 corrective phase, is expected to resume bears established on reversal from 1.0791 and price expected to extend downtrend, entrenched within bear-channel, through psychological 1.03 support and 1.0285, low of 1997, below which parity level is expected to come in short-term focus. Yesterday’s high at 1.0388, offers initial resistance and so far caps consolidation, while filling yesterday’s gap and regain of levels above 1.04 barrier, would signal stronger correction.

Res: 1.0388; 1.0400; 1.0425; 1.0450
Sup: 1.0350; 1.0327; 1.0300; 1.0285




XAU/USD

Spot Gold loses traction after recovery attempts off fresh low at 1216, where daily 100SMA, offered support for now, were capped by descending daily 10SMA. Hourly studies are turning bearish after easing from recovery high at 1236 so far retraced over 50% of 1216/1236 corrective rally. With overall picture holding bearish tone, limited upside attempts are expected in the near-term, with 1236/38, yesterday’s / 11 Feb highs, seen capping for now and keeping pivotal 1245, 10 Feb lower top and 1250, 200SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1307/1216 descend, out of reach. Bearish acceleration below 1223, 13 Feb higher low and close below here, to signal an end of near-term corrective phase and re-focus pivotal 1216 support. Loss of 1216 handle to signal resumption of reversal from 1307 high and look for daily cloud top at 1205 and psychological 1200 support.

Res: 1229; 1233; 1236; 1238
Sup: 1223; 1219; 1216; 1210