Thursday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

EUR/USD

The euro entered near-term corrective mode, with two-legged recovery extending to 1.0745 today, after brief hesitation at 1.07 barrier, seen late yesterday. Bullish near-term studies favor fresh attempts higher, after the pair cracked 10SMA and consolidates under 1.07 handle. Immediate barriers lay at 1.0756, daily Kijun-sen, ahead of 1.0776, daily Tenkan-sen line and pivotal daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0796. Close above here is required to confirm recovery and neutralize risk of lower top formation and fresh leg-lower, as overall picture remains bearish and favors extension lower after completion of short-term 1.0461/1.1050 consolidative phase.

Res: 1.0706; 1.0745; 1.0775; 1.0796
Sup: 1.0663; 1.0612; 1.0590; 1.0569




EUR/JPY

The pair remains bearish overall, with near-term price action holding in consolidative mode, confirmed with repeated long-legged Doji candle. Today’s attempts above narrow consolidation, are so far limited and keep initial pivots at 128.39, former low of 01 Apr and 128.51, daily 10SMA, break of which is required to signal further recovery and open breakpoint at 129.25, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 61.8% of 131.28/126.08 downleg. While the latter caps, expect prolonged consolidation, with downside risk in play.

Res: 127.85; 128.39; 128.51; 128.68
Sup: 127.09; 126.26; 126.08; 125.50




GBP/USD

Cable maintains positive near-term tone and extends three-day recovery from 1.4563, 13 Apr low, to 1.4878, retracing over 76.4% of the downleg from 1.4970 to 1.4563. Three positive daily closes in long green candles, signal reversal, as the price establishes above daily 20SMA and cracked broken bull-trendline off 1.4633, former low. Bullish near-term studies favor further recovery and retest of pivotal 1.4970/1.50 resistance zone, tops of former consolidation range, break of which to confirm reversal. Corrective easing faces initial support at 1.4800, former high, with extended dips to be ideally contained above 1.4758, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4563/1.4878 upleg. Otherwise, extended weakness and violation of 1.4698/84, 15 Apr trough / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, would neutralize near-term bulls and signal an end of corrective phase.

Res: 1.4878; 1.4920; 1.4970; 1.5000
Sup: 1.4800; 1.4758; 1.4721; 1.4698




USD/JPY

The pair remains at the back foot in the near-term, as yesterday’s repeated close in red and extension below daily cloud base at 118.92, to fresh low at 118.79, daily 20d lower Bollinger band, nearly fully retraced 118.70/120.83 upleg. With daily indicators breaking into negative territory and firm bearish tone on lower timeframes technicals, scope is seen for final push towards pivotal 118.31 support, low of 26 Mar, to complete 118.31/120.83 bull-phase and signal formation of daily failure swing, for further easing towards lower boundary of three-month 115.83/122.01 consolidation range. Corrective actions off 118.78, hourly double-bottom, should be ideally capped under 119.73, yesterday’s high and lower top of 120.83/118.78 descend.

Res: 119.42; 119.73; 120.10; 120.42
Sup: 119.22; 118.78; 118.70; 118.31



AUD/USD

The pair accelerates above pivotal 0.7736 barrier, 09 Apr high and top of near-term consolidation range, signaling near-term base formation. Two consecutive positive daily closes and today’s fresh acceleration through daily 20SMA that also penetrated daily cloud base and reached 0.7780 high so far, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7936/0.7531 downleg, sidelines immediate downside risk. Further rallies and daily close above 0.7782 barrier is required to signal formation of daily double-bottom, for possible stronger recovery. Bullish near-term studies support the notion, with corrective easing on overbought hourly technicals, expected to find support at 0.7690 zone, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7553/0.7780 upleg.

Res: 0.7780; 0.7841; 0.7882; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7730; 0.7690; 0.7667; 0.7640




AUD/NZD

The cross bounces from 1.0074, yesterday’s low and sidelines immediate risk of attack at parity level. Fresh rally that regained levels above former congestion tops at 1.0214, suggests prolonged consolidation, before fresh attempts lower. Improved hourly studies support the notion, however, negative tone prevails on larger timeframes studies. In case of daily close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0186 and repeated attempts above 1.0214, positive signals would be generated and signal possible stronger recovery towards next strong barriers at 1.0280, former low of 04 Mar and 1.0337, lower top of 26 Mar and just above Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0526/1.0016 downleg.

Res: 1.0200; 1.0217; 1.0280; 1.0337
Sup: 1.0162; 1.0128; 1.0100; 1.0081



XAU/USD

Spot gold recovered part of recent losses, after bounce from 1183, 14 Apr fresh low, regained psychological 1200 barrier, with yesterday’s close above here and today’s penetration of daily Ichimoku cloud base, signaling higher low formation. Hourly studies turned positive, with 4-hour indicators at the midlines and dailies holding in the positive territory, supporting scenario of further recovery. Ascending daily 20SMA underpins the action at 1196, with fresh gains above 1211, daily 100SMA, required to confirm recovery. Conversely, return and close below 1200 handle, would weaken the structure and increase downside risk.

Res: 1207; 1211; 1214; 1219
Sup: 1200; 1196; 1192; 1188