Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro trades above 1.14 handle and daily 10/20SMA’s bullish cross, regaining positive tone after last Friday’s Doji and close below psychological 1.14 level. Positively aligned near-term studies are supportive, ahead of today’s Eurogroup / Greece meeting, however prolonged consolidative phase to be expected while the price holds between 1.1378, MA’s cross and 1.1482, daily Kijun-sen, above which to open key near-term barrier, correction highs at 1.1500/32 and signal resumption of corrective phase from 1.1096 low, on a break. Conversely, loss of 1.1378 handle, also Friday’s low, would weaken the structure and expose higher base at 1.1270 for test.

Res: 1.1440; 1.1470; 1.1500; 1.1532
Sup: 1.1400; 1.1378; 1.1340; 1.1300




EUR/JPY

The cross is at the back foot in the near-term trading, following past two trading days close in red, after recovery action was rejected at 136.68 and descend maintained by daily Kijun-sen. Good support lies at 134.60/50 zone, daily Tenkan-sen / 20SMA, also 50% of 132.53/135.68 upleg, loss of which to confirm near-term bears fully in play for further easing. On the other side, the third positive weekly close, would signal extended corrective phase off 130.13 low, with break of 136.68 peak, reinforced by weekly 100SMA, required to confirm bullish resumption.

Res: 135.15; 136.00; 136.32; 136.68
Sup: 135.00; 134.60; 134.50; 134.00



GBP/USD


The pair maintains bullish tone and moves above 1.54 handle, after consolidative action on Friday’s Doji, followed last Thursday’s strong rally. Positive near-term studies and daily technicals establishing in bullish mode, favor further upside. The price penetrated daily cloud, base of which, together with broken daily 55SMA, at 1.5366, offers solid support, expected to hold corrective dips. Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.5618/1.4950 downleg at 1.5460 marks initial target, ahead of psychological 1.55 barrier and more significant daily cloud top at 1.5535. Close above here to open key near-term barrier at 1.5618, 31 Dec 2014 lower top, reinforced by falling daily SMA.

Res: 1.5460; 1.5500; 1.5535; 1.5618
Sup: 1.5400; 1.5366; 1.5350; 1.5300




USD/JPY

The pair remains under pressure and attempts again at strong support at 118.30, last Friday’s low / 09/10Feb lows, reinforced by daily 20SMA and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 116.86/120.46 rally. Negatively aligned near-term studies support further downside, with loss of pivotal 118.30 support, expected to accelerate pullback from fresh high at 120.46. On the other side, keeping 118.30 support intact, would signal basing attempt for fresh push higher, as positive tone of daily studies is still in play. Confirmation requires close above 119.00, daily cloud top, to re-focus the upper targets.

Res: 119.00; 119.18; 119.60; 120.00
Sup: 118.30; 118.15; 117.71; 117.15



AUD/USD

Near-term studies hold positive tone, following past three-day positive close, but attempts through last Friday’s high, are so far running out of steam, keeping pivotal 0.7847, daily 20SMA and 0.7874, 06 Feb lower top, intact for now. While upside attempts remain limited below these barriers, extended consolidative action is expected to precede fresh attacks at key supports at 0.7642/24, loss of which to confirm resumption of larger downtrend. Conversely, sustained break higher is required to confirm double-bottom formation and stronger bounce towards next barrier at 0.7958, sideways-moving daily Kijun-sen line.

Res: 0.7793; 0.7840; 0.7874; 0.7900
Sup: 0.7750; 0.7722; 0.7700; 0.7667




AUD/NZD


The pair remains under pressure and continues to trend lower, with weekly gap-lower open, cracking key near-term support at 1.0350, low of 07 Jan. Completion of 1.0350/1.0791 corrective phase, signals fresh attempts lower, towards new all-time lows. Narrow consolidation above fresh daily low, could be expected, while filling today’s gap would signal corrective action. Last Friday’s high at 1.0450, above Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0609/1.0339 downleg, is expected to ideally cap.

Res: 1.0390; 1.0425; 1.0450; 1.0482
Sup: 1.0364; 1.0339; 1.0300; 1.0285




XAU/USD

Spot Gold broke above initial barriers at 1228/31, signaling stronger correction of 1307/1216 descend. Near-term studies are gaining traction that puts downside risk on hold. However, immediate barriers at 1238, 11Feb high and 1240, daily 10SMA, come in focus, with break higher to open pivotal barriers at 1245, 10Feb lower top and 1250, 200SMA. Ideally, extended rallies should be capped here, to keep larger bears intact for fresh push lower. Otherwise, close above 200SMA, to confirm reversal.

Res: 1238; 1240; 1245; 1250
Sup: 1226; 1223; 1219; 1216