Wednesday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro slips from fresh recovery high at 1.0706, where yesterday’s strong rally stalled on approach to pivotal barriers at 1.0711/16, former low of 31 Mar / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1034/1.0519 descend. Reversal found temporary footstep at 1.0616, 50% of yesterday’s 1.0530/1.0706 rally, reinforced by 4-hour 55 EMA. Mixed near-term studies suggest consolidation, however, downside remains vulnerable, with extension below 1.06 handle, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0530/1.0706 upleg, to signal an end of corrective phase, with renewed downside pressure, to re-focus recent lows at 1.0530 and 1.0519. Negative setup of daily technicals supports the notion. Only break above initial breakpoints at 1.0711/16 and 1.0747, daily 10SMA, would revive near-term bulls for extension towards pivotal 1.0793, daily 20SMA, above which to confirm reversal.

Res: 1.0672; 1.0716; 1.0747; 1.0793
Sup: 1.0616; 1.0600; 1.0571; 1.0530




EUR/JPY

Yesterday’s long-legged Doji signals hesitation after the price eventually broke below key 126.89 support, with extension to fresh low at 126.08, being short-lived for now. Regain of levels above 127 barrier improves hourly studies, however, still weak tone on 4-hour studies and price action holding below pivotal 127.81 barrier, lower top of 13 Apr, sees the upside limited for now. Also, daily studies hold bearish setup and see current move as corrective action, ahead of fresh push lower. Potential break above 127.81 hurdle, to delay bears for next pivotal barriers at 128.39, 01 Apr former low and 128.68, daily Tenkan-sen line / 50% retracement of 131.28/126.08 downleg, where extended rallies should be ideally capped.

Res: 127.62; 127.81; 128.39; 128.68
Sup: 127.00; 126.50; 126.08; 125.50



GBP/USD

Cable bounced from fresh low at 1.4563, posted on 13 Apr and tested psychological 1.48 barrier, on two-day recovery rally. Repeated positive close and fresh gains that cracked pivotal 1.4771/89 barriers, daily Tenkan-sen and daily 10SMA, give initial signals of reversal, as near-term studies are gaining bullish tone. Fresh strength and close above 1.4815, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.4970/1.4563 downleg / daily 20SMA, is required to confirm and resume recovery. Otherwise, expect downside risk to remain in play, in case the price continues to hold below daily 20SMA.

Res: 1.4800; 1.4815; 1.4884; 1.4920
Sup: 1.4745; 1.4710; 1.4690; 1.4654




USD/JPY

Yesterday’s fresh weakness and close in long red candle maintain downside pressure, as the price action penetrated and trades in the daily cloud, with fresh acceleration lower dipping to 119.06, below Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 118.31/120.83 upleg. Near-term studies are bearish, with daily indicators attempting into negative territory, signaling further weakness. Fresh attempts below 118.92, daily cloud base / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement, to confirm and open initial 118.70 support, higher low of 03 Apr, ahead of key short-term support at 118.31, 26 Mar low. Daily Tenkan-sen line at 119.76, caps today’s price action, ahead of 119.88, daily cloud top and psychological 120 barrier, above which to sideline immediate downside risk.

Res: 119.76; 119.88; 120.00; 120.30
Sup: 119.33; 119.06; 118.92; 118.70



AUD/USD

The pair remains in near-term consolidative phase above 0.7551, where near-term base has been built. Yesterday’s rally to 0.7646, 50% retracement of 0.7736/0.7551 downleg, was so far short lived, keeping near-term technicals weak, as daily 10SMA caps near-term action. On the larger picture, bearish tone prevails, as the pair trades in consolidative phase, above key 0.7551/31 lows. Only close above daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7687, would signal stronger recovery that requires break and close above 0.7736, current recovery high, to neutralize downside risk.

Res: 0.7628; 0.7647; 0.7665; 0.7700
Sup: 0.7578; 0.7551; 0.7531; 0.7500




AUD/NZD

The cross dips below near-term range floor at 1.0143 and daily 10SMA at 1.0129, with yesterday’s close in red and today’s fresh acceleration below 1.01 handle, signaling an end of corrective phase. Upside attempts were capped at 1.0210 zone, where lower platform was built and overall action holding below descending daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0191. With near-term technicals turning into bearish mode and overall picture being negative, scope is seen for fresh weakness and retest of 1.0016, low of 06 Apr and eventual attack at parity level, to resume descend in uncharted territory. Break below 1.0000 handle to open immediate target at 0.9985, Fibonacci 161.8% projection of the downleg from 1.1301and 200% projection at 0.9674, seen in extension. Lower platform at 1.0210 zone acts as pivotal barrier and should keep the upside protected for now.

Res: 1.0115; 1.0143; 1.0191; 1.0210
Sup: 1.0074; 1.0050; 1.0016; 1.0000



XAU/USD

Spot gold remains under pressure, following extended weakness and yesterday’s repeated close below 1200 barrier. Yesterday’s dips were contained at 1183, 50% retracement of 1142/1224 upleg and daily Kijun-sen line, with subsequent bounce marking daily close still above daily 20SMA, at 1191. This could keep alive hopes of fresh attempts higher alive, as daily technicals are neutral. Repeated close above 20SMA is required to signal recovery attempt, with close above psychological 1200 barrier, reinforced by daily 10SMA, to confirm. Otherwise, the downside is expected to stay vulnerable, with violation of pivotal 1178 trough, to confirm bearish resumption.

Res: 1194; 1200; 1206; 1210
Sup: 1183; 1178; 1173; 1168