Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

EUR/USD

The euro maintains strong bearish tone, with repeated close in long red candle and today’s probe below psychological 1.05 support. Near-term focus remains at the downside targets at 1.0335, Jan 2003 low and 1.0206, July 2002 high, ahead of 1.0069, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of larger 0.8225/1.6039 rally, with test of parity level becoming more realistic. Corrective rally on oversold near-term studies is seen preceding fresh attempts lower, as setup of daily /weekly studies remains firmly bearish. Acceleration higher looks for 1.06 barrier initially, ahead of 1.0665, hourly lower base / near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0905/1.0493 downleg and 10.07 zone, also 50% retracement, where rallies should be initially capped. However, oversold daily studies require caution, with close above 1.07, to signal stronger corrective action.

Res: 1.0650; 1.0665; 1.0715; 1.0747
Sup: 1.0554; 1.0493; 1.0450; 1.0400




EUR/JPY

The pair bounces off fresh low at 127.61, posted on yesterday’s probe below psychological 128 support, with near-term corrective phase expected to precede fresh leg lower, as bearish tone prevails. Corrective rally faces significant resistance at 129.05/18 zone, Fibonacci 64.8% of 129.94/127.61 downleg and low of 10 Mar, ahead of pivotal 130 zone. Only break and close above here would neutralize immediate bears and shift near-term focus from targets at 124.94/123.31, low of June 2013 / high of Apr 2011.

Res: 129.05; 129.18; 129.40; 130.00
Sup: 128.25; 128.00; 127.61; 127.00



GBP/USD

Cable remains under strong pressure after yesterday’s bearish acceleration took out key supports at 1.5000 and 1.4950, also probing below psychological 1.49 handle. Yesterday’s long red candle confirms bearish stance for eventual attack at key med-term supports at 1.4830/12, higher base of 2013. Corrective rally off fresh low at 1.4891, eyes psychological 1.50 barrier, ahead of strong 1.5030 resistance, former base and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5135/1.4891 downleg, where corrective rallies should be ideally capped. Otherwise, further rallies would signal prolonged corrective action. Key barrier and near-term breakpoint lies at 1.5135, lower top of 09 Mar and near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5551/1.4891 descend.

Res: 1.5000; 1.5030; 1.5050; 1.5100
Sup: 1.4950; 1.4891; 1.4850; 1.4830




USD/JPY

The pair remains in near-term consolidative phase under fresh high at 122.01, with corrective dips being so far contained at 120.80 zone. Former peak at 121.83, marks strong barrier and caps attempts higher. Near-term indicators are pointing lower and support further consolidation. On the other side, bulls remain intact on daily chart studies that keep focus at the upside. Correction lows at 120.80, mark initial support, ahead of 120.60 higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 118.29/122.01 rally, where downside attempts should be ideally contained, to avert risk of deeper pullback, expected to accelerate on close below 120.60 support.

Res: 121.65; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.00; 120.84; 120.60; 120.37



AUD/USD

Overall tone remains bearish, as yesterday’s break below 0.76 handle posted fresh low at 0.7558. Immediate bears are now on hold, as corrective bounce from 0.7558 low, attacks pivotal 0.7681 lower top, also near 38.2% of 0.7843/0.7558 downleg. Extended correction is through 0.7700, daily Tenkan-sen line, is expected to find strong barrier at 0.7740 zone, former base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, where rallies should be ideally capped, ahead of fresh attempt lower. Recent break below key 0.7624 support, shifted short-term focus towards next target at 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 ascend.

Res: 0.7622; 0.7700; 0.7740; 0.7787
Sup: 0.7643; 0.7622; 0.7600; 0.7571



AUD/NZD

The cross came under strong pressure after quick pullback off fresh recovery high at 1.0526, left bearish Outside Day and today’s fresh bearish acceleration took out psychological 1.04 support, to retrace over 61.8% of 1.0279/1.0526 rally, on extension to 1.0363 so far. Near-term studies turned bearish and shift focus again towards the downside, after upside rejection and fresh acceleration lower signaled an end of corrective phase from 1.0279 low. The pair now looks for test of 1.0337, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.0279/1.0526, ahead of psychological 1.03 level and key 1.0279 low. Broken daily 20SMA at 1.0386 and daily Tenkan-sen at 1.04, offer initial resistance and only close above here would delay fresh bears.

Res: 1.0386; 1.0400; 1.0450; 1.0500
Sup: 1.0337; 1.0300; 1.0279; 1.0250




XAU/USD

Spot Gold continues to trend lower and posted new low at 1147 yesterday, with subsequent corrective rally, fully reversing yesterday’s losses. Corrective action found barrier at 1166, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1197/1147 downleg for now, ahead of 1170, high of 10 Mar and pivotal 1175, lower top of 09 Mar, where extended rallies should be ideally capped, as overall picture remains bearish and looks for next targets at 1142/37, 01 Dec 2014 low / Fibonacci 261.8% projection of the downleg from 1223 and key med-term support at 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014. Only extended rallies and close above 1183, descending daily SMA, would sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1166; 1170; 1175; 1183
Sup: 1156; 1150; 1147; 1142