Daily Market Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/JPY And AUD/NZD

EUR/USD

The pair showed no significant changes during this week, trading within 1.1268/1.1358 range and price action mainly holding around magnetic 1.13 level. Near-term technicals maintain neutral tone, confirmed with repeated Dojis, while daily studies remain negatively aligned, as the price stays capped by daily 10SMA and corrective action from 1.1096, low of 26 Jan, limited by descending daily 20SMA. On the other side, fundamentals are expected to be the main trigger for fresh direction, as uncertainty about Greece continues and potential negative results may accelerate Euro towards parity level, while positive solution for the crisis would boost the pair for fresh recovery. Daily 20SMA at 1.1380, marks the first breakpoint, close above which to open recovery rejection levels and lower platform at 1.1500/30 zone and resume correction off 1.1096, on sustained break higher.

Res: 1.1358; 1.1380; 1.1400; 1.1430
Sup: 1.1300; 1.1268; 1.1260; 1.1222




EUR/JPY

The cross maintains bullish tone and yesterday’s acceleration to fresh high at 136.68, marked the second positive daily close, which also occurred above daily Kijun-sen line, currently at 135.92. Corrective easing on overbought hourlies should be ideally contained above 135 zone, where previous highs and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 132.53/136.68 upleg lay, before fresh attempts higher. Immediate target, above 136.68 high, lies at psychological 137 barrier, also near Fibonacci 161.8% projection of the upleg from 132.53, ahead of pivotal 137.62 barrier, lower top of 20Jan and Fibonacci 38.2% of 149.76/130.13 descend. However, extension below 135 handle, would delay bulls and risk test of daily 20SMA at 134.57 and pivotal support at 133.66, higher low of 09 Feb, loss of which will be bearish.

Res: 136.20; 136.68; 137.00; 137.62
Sup: 135.70; 135.35; 135.10; 134.60




GBP/USD


Cable returned back to near-term range, after yesterday’s rally through range tops at 1.5270 zone, stalled on approach to 1.53 barrier. Yesterday’s close in red confirmed false break and confirmed near-term neutral stance. Range floor at 1.52 zone is reinforced by daily 10SMA and so far holds, with break lower to confirm failure swing and trigger fresh easing towards daily 20SMA/Kijun-sen line, also 50% of 1.4950/1.5351 rally at 1.5150. Close below here to confirm near-term bears fully in play and shift focus lower. On the other side, regain of 1.53 handle, would re-focus pivotal barriers at 1.5351, 06 Feb high and 1.5363, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5618/1.4950 descend.

Res: 1.5275; 1.5300; 1.5351; 1.5386
Sup: 1.5200; 1.5164; 1.5150; 1.5100



USD/JPY

The pair remains supported and consolidates above psychological 120 level, which was taken out on yesterday’s acceleration that peaked at 120.46 and now marks initial support. The second long green daily candle confirm bullish stance, with current third wave that commenced from 116.86, aiming towards its Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, which also marks end of January lower platform and pivotal barrier. Extension of corrective phase below 120 handle, should be ideally contained at 119.20/00 zone, 06 Feb former high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 116.86/120.46 rally, to keep bulls intact.

Res: 120.46; 120.80; 121.00; 121.83
Sup: 120.00; 119.60; 119.20; 119.00



AUD/USD

The pair came under pressure on negative data and accelerated lower, following yesterday’s close below four-day range floor at 0.7730. Fresh weakness approaches key support at 0.7624, 03 Feb low, to complete near-term 0.7624/0.7874 corrective phase and signal resumption of larger downtrend. Close below 0.7624 support, o open next target at 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% of 2008/2011 0.6007/1.1079 rally. Near-term studies hold firm bears, however, hesitation ahead of key support could expected on oversold conditions. Former support at 0.7730, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7874/0.7642 descend, now acts as strong resistance and should ideally cap corrective rallies.

Res: 0.7700; 0.7730; 0.7760; 0.7790
Sup: 0.7646; 0.7624; 0.7530; 0.7470




AUD/NZD


The pair continues to move lower after losing 1.05 handle, as fresh extension lower, tested psychological 1.04 level so far. Bears are fully in play on near-term studies and favor eventual push to the key support at 1.0350, 07 Jan low, to complete 1.0350/1.0791 corrective phase and resume large downtrend on sustained break lower. Bearish setup of daily technicals supports the notion, with corrective rallies, expected to find strong resistance at 1.0573, week’s high, posted after gap-lower opening. Only filling the weekly gap and extension above 1.06 barrier, would sideline near-term bears.

Res: 1.0482; 1.0500; 1.0545; 1.0573
Sup: 1.0408; 1.0350; 1.0300; 1.0250




XAU/USD

Spot Gold extended weakness and dipped to 1216 low, on acceleration lower after loss of near-term base at 1228. Daily 100SMA contained dips for now, with bounce on oversold near-term conditions, expected to find ideal barriers at 1228/31, former lows and 50% of 1245/1216 descend, before fresh push lower. Break of 100SMA would trigger fresh acceleration towards 1204, 08 Jan higher low and psychological 1200 support, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1167/1307 ascend. Only regain of 1245, 10Feb high, would neutralize bears and open pivotal 1253 barrier, former base and 200SMA.

Res: 1228; 1231; 1238; 1245
Sup: 1216; 1210; 1204; 1200