Daily Market Outlook: February 10, 2015

EUR/USD

The euro maintains weak near-term tone, consolidating above 1.13 handle, after yesterday’s renewed attempt lower found footstep ticks above pivotal 1.1260 higher base, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.1096/1.1532 upleg. Close below daily 10SMA, supports bearish outlook, as setup of near-term studies is negative and favors further downside. Break below 1.1260 handle to confirm bearish resumption and open 1.1222, higher low of 27 Jan, the last significant obstacle en-route towards key 1.1096 support. Near-term price action is for now limited by 1.1350/58, daily 10SMA / yesterday’s high and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1497/1.1268 downleg, with extended near-term consolidation seen while the barrier holds. Break higher to signal further correction, while only close above descending daily 20SMA, which so far capped the action and currently lies at 1.1420, would provide relief and re-focus the upper targets above 1.15 barrier.

Res: 1.1358; 1.1380; 1.1420; 1.1465
Sup: 1.1311; 1.1268; 1.1260; 1.1222




EUR/JPY

Near-term price action holds neutral tone, ranging between daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line on the downside and 20SMA capping, with double Doji candles confirming near-term indecision. Overall picture, however, remains negative and keeps the downside at risk, while near-term congestion tops at 135.35, stay intact. Close below initial 133.80 support, 10SMA / Tenkan-sen, to signal weakness, with confirmation requiring extension below 132.55/13, former congestion lows and the latter also marking Fibonacci 61.8% of 130.13/135.35 ascend, to confirm bearish stance and shift focus towards key supports at 130.13/00. Conversely, close above daily 20SMA and 135.35 congestion tops, to signal resumption of the rally from 130.13, for further correction.

Res: 134.64; 134.97; 135.17; 135.35
Sup: 134.10; 133.80; 133.66; 132.16



GBP/USD

Cable consolidates above 1.52 handle, near double- Fibonacci support, 38.2% retracement of 1.4950/1.5351 upleg and broken 38.2% of 1.5618/1.4950 descend, where pullback from fresh correction high at 1.5351, found temporary footstep. Mixed near-term studies signal neutral tone and further consolidation, with loss of 1.52 handle, to weaken the structure and open daily 10 and 20SMA supports at 1.5165 and 1.5142 respectively, below which to bring bears fully in play and re-focus lower boundaries of former consolidation range. Alternatively, sustained break above near-term consolidation range and yesterday’s high at 1.5265, to give initial bullish signal of higher low formation, for return towards pivotal 1.5351 high. Bullish resumption requires confirmation on a break above 1.5394, descending daily 55SMA.

Res: 1.5265; 1.5300; 1.5351; 1.5394
Sup: 1.5200; 1.5164; 1.5126; 1.5095




USD/JPY

Near-term tone softened after pullback from fresh high at 119.20, signaled limited upside attempts and kept pivotal daily cloud top barrier at 119.25, intact. Yesterday’s close in red, puts near-term bulls on hold, as weakness probes below initial 118.45 support, 27 Jan former high and Fibonacci 38.2% of 117.15/119.20 upleg. Consolidative action is under way, confirmed by Asia’s Doji, however, downside risk would increase in case of further easing and violation of 117.90, daily 20SMA. Close below here will be bearish. On the other side, regain of minimum 118.76, yesterday’s intraday high, is required to signal higher low formation for return to 118.99, yesterday’s high and renewed attempt at pivotal 119.20/25, 06 Feb high / daily Ichimoku cloud top, break of which to resume recovery from 116.86, 02 Feb trough.

Res: 118.76; 118.99; 119.25; 119.57
Sup: 118.31; 118.18; 117.90; 117.60



AUD/USD

The pair returns to near-term range, defined by 0.7732 and 0.7874 boundaries, following rejection on yesterday’s attempt at range floor and subsequent bounce that attempts to establish price action above psychological 0.78 level and daily 10SMA. Positive setup of hourly studies sees potential for renewed attempt at the upper range barrier, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8293/0.7624 descend, to signal break above near-term congestion, for stronger corrective action. Otherwise, prolonged consolidative phase could be expected in the near-term. Conversely, renewed violation of range floor levels would soften near-term tone and signal an end of near-term consolidative phase.

Res: 0.7840; 0.7874; 0.7900; 0.7940
Sup: 0.7789; 0.7746; 0.7732; 0.7720



AUD/NZD

Near-term tone remains weak, with price action retesting 1.05 base, following weekly gap-lower opening. Larger picture setup is also negative, with past one week’s action being capped by descending daily Ichimoku cloud base, with formation of double bear-cross of 10/20 and 55/20 daily SMA, maintaining downside pressure. Yesterday’s bearish Inside Day and close below Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0350/1.0792 ascend, signals further weakness, with close below 1.05 handle to confirm and open next targets at 1.0455/18, en-route towards key 1.0350 support. Alternative scenario requires close above 1.0609, last Friday’s high, to avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 1.0545; 1.0573; 1.0609; 1.0658
Sup: 1.0500; 1.0477; 1.0455; 1.0418