Daily Market Outlook 07.01.2015

EUR/USD

The euro maintains bearish sentiment, with yesterday’s repeated close in red and overnight probe below previous low at 1.1860, signaling an end of near-term consolidative phase and fresh push lower. Technicals are bearish on all timeframes, however, oversold 4-hour and daily conditions suggest corrective actions coming sessions. Formation of 4-hour RSI / MACD bullish divergence, supports the notion. Former consolidation tops at 1.1975, along with psychological 1.2000 barrier, offer solid resistances and only break here would confirm corrective phase. Meantime, round-figure supports at 1.18 and 1.17, mark support points, en-route towards target at 1.1640, low of 2005.

Res: 1.1885; 1.1900; 1.1957; 1.1975
Sup: 1.1838; 1.1800; 1.1750; 1.1700



EUR/JPY

The pair continues to trend lower, with yesterday’s long red candle, signaling strong bearish stance, as the price broke below daily 100SMA at 141.30 and tested levels below 141 handle. Near-term focus is at strong support zone at 140.26, 200SMA and psychological 140 support, also near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 134.12/149.76 ascend. Hesitation on approach to the targets could be caused by oversold studies, with initial barrier at 141.62, daily Ichimoku cloud base and 143 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 147.20/140.54 downleg and week’s highs at 144.00/20 zone, expected to cap extended rallies.

Res: 141.49; 141.62; 142.00; 142.26
Sup: 140.54; 140.26; 140.00; 139.12



GBP/USD

Cable resumed the downtrend, interrupted by consolidative phase above former low at 1.5166, which was capped at 1.5317 and came ticks away from 1.51, round-figure support. Past three-days downside acceleration, shows strong bearish sentiment and keeps focus at psychological 1.50 support, with extension to 1.4812/30 base and lows of 2013, not ruled out on a loss of 1.50 handle. Oversold 4-hour and daily studies suggest hesitation on approach to 1.50 support, with week’s highs at 1.5317. also near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5618/1.5107 downleg, expected to ideally cap rallies, as filling Monday’s gap would signal stronger correction and put immediate bears on hold.

Res: 1.5150; 1.5200; 1.5272; 1.5317
Sup: 1.5107; 1.5050; 1.5000; 1.4610



USD/JPY

The pair bounces off yesterday’s fresh low at 118.03, after acceleration lower met targets at 118.18/00. Near-term studies remain negative and see current rally as corrective and preceding fresh weakness. Consolidation under recovery peak at 119.16, is supported by daily Kijun-Sen line at 118.69, but so far shows no clear break above Fibonacci 38.2% of 120.72/118.03 descend, at 119.06 and also being capped by daily 20SMAMA at 119.24. Sustained break here and 119.38 lower top of yesterday, also 50% retracement and daily Tenkan-Sen line, is required to improve near-term structure and neutralize existing downside risk. Positively aligned daily studies support the notion. Alternatively, daily close below 119 would keep focus at the downside.

Res: 119.16; 119.38; 119.70; 120.00
Sup: 118.78; 118.35; 118.03; 117.56



AUD/USD

The pair remains in near-term consolidative phase off fresh low at 0.8034, with rallies being capped at 0.8155, by descending daily 20SMA and subsequent dip to 0.8051, keeping near-term tone negative. Yesterday’s Gravestone Doji signals hesitation but also strong selling interest, which so far keeps focus at the downside. Psychological 0.8000 level and 0.7645, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.6007/1.1079 ascend, are immediate targets, as overall picture remains bearish. Only close above daily 20SMA would delay and expose pivotal 0.8213, 31 Dec peak.

Res: 0.8080; 0.8100; 0.8140; 0.8155
Sup: 0.8051; 0.8034; 0.8000; 0.7945



AUD/NZD

The pair came under pressure after recovery attempts off 1.0418, previous low, stalled at 1.0567, where descending daily 20SMA capped rally and subsequent acceleration lower, eventually broke below psychological 1.04 support. Yesterday’s long red candle gives strong bearish signal of fresh weakness towards next target at 1.0285, low of 1997, for final break below multi-year cycle’s bottom and critical support zone. Consolidative action above fresh low at 1.0388, is expected to precede fresh weakness, with daily 10SMA offering resistance at 1.0463, ahead of daily 20SMA at 1.0522, which should cap extended rallies.

Res: 1.0432; 1.0463; 1.0500; 1.0522
Sup: 1.0388; 1.0350; 1.0300; 1.0285



XAU/USD

Spot gold maintains positive near-term tone, with daily indicators establishing in positive territory. Yesterday’s fresh upside extension, which broke above pivotal 1213 barrier, top of near-term congestion, extended above daily 100SMA at 1218 and so far tested 1223, former peak of 16 Dec 2014. Repeated positive close shows scope for final push towards key 1238 barrier, peak of 09 Dec 2014, for full retracement of 1238/1167 downleg and resumption of larger ascend from 1131, low of 07 Nov 2014. Higher low at 1207, reinforced by hourly 55EMA, offers initial support, ahead of psychological 1200 level, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1167/1223 rally, where corrective pullbacks should be ideally contained.

Res: 1223; 1230; 1238; 1250
Sup: 1209; 1207; 1200; 1195