Daily Market Outlook: Euro Falls From Fresh Recovery High

EUR/USD

The euro fell yesterday from fresh recovery high at 1.1532, where descending daily 20SMA capped the rally, to 1.13 support, after disappointing ECB’s decision to reject Greece’s new proposals about roll-back of austerity, hardening financial rules for Greek banks. Near-term studies softened, as recovery stall and reversal below 50% of 1.1096/1.1532 rally, so far contained by daily 10SMA, sees risk of further easing. Fresh weakness and loss of pivotal 1.1260 higher base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, is required to confirm an end of recovery phase. Close below here would boost bears for possible return to key 1.1096 support. However, prolonged consolidation could be expected to precede fresh push lower, while 10SMA holds, with overall bearish tone, keeping the downside favored in the near-term.

Res: 1.1360; 1.1400; 1.1445; 1.1483
Sup: 1.1300; 1.1260; 1.1220; 1.1200




EUR/JPY

Yesterday’s sharp fall nearly fully erased Tuesday’s rally, leaving descending daily 20SMA intact and posting fresh lows under daily 10SMA. Near-term risk shifts towards the downside, as the price returns to the levels close to previous range floor. Hourly studies are bearish and 4-hour chart indicators attempting below midlines, which sees risk of retest and possible break of pivotal 132.20 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% of 130.13/135.35, former range floor and higher base, in case of today’s close below daily 10SMA, currently at 133.20. Larger picture’s bears are maintained by descending 20SMA and only sustained break here would bring near-term bulls back to play for extension of recovery rally from 130.13.

Res: 133.40; 133.86; 134.40; 134.70
Sup: 132.53; 132.20; 132.00; 131.36




GBP/USD


Cable maintains positive near-term tone and attempts again at 1.52 barrier, following yesterday’s rally to fresh high at 1.5250 that cracked pivotal 1.5220/67 resistance zone and corrective pullback to 1.5163. The pair found footstep above more significant 1.5150, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4987/1.5250 rally and 1.5125, daily 20SMA, which are required to limit corrective dips and keep freshly established near-term bulls intact. Sustained break above pivotal 1.5267 barrier, high of 14 Jan, is needed to confirm an end of consolidative phase and trigger stronger corrective rally. Conversely, repeated failure at near-term congestion tops, would signal prolonged range trading, with slide below daily 20SMA, to soften near-term tone.

Res: 1.5212; 1.5250; 1.5267; 1.5284
Sup: 1.5163; 1.5150; 1.5125; 1.5087




USD/JPY

Near-term tone remains soft, as descending daily 20SMA capped yesterday’s action, which left lower top at 117.98 and ended in red, but again closing above 117.20, former range floor. Daily indicators are establishing in negative territory that keeps immediate supports at 116.86 in focus, with sustained break lower to re-focus key supports at 115.83 and 115.55. On the upside, daily 20SMA and Tenkan-sen, mark strong barrier at 117.75, with break here to expose daily Ichimoku cloud top, currently at 118.43, that kept the upside attempts limited for the past two-weeks.

Res: 117.42; 117.66; 117.98; 118.43
Sup: 117.00; 116.86; 116.55; 115.83





AUD/USD

The pair enters sideways mode in the near-term trading, following full retracement of 0.7831/0.7624 descend, awaiting trigger for fresh movements. Near-term tone is neutral, but larger picture remains bearish, with daily 10SMA limiting corrective attempts. The downside would remain vulnerable, while 10SMA caps and keeps intact pivotal barriers at 0.7995, daily 20SMA and 0.8023, 28 Jan lower top, break of which is required to trigger stronger correction.

Res: 0.7845; 0.7856; 0.7900; 0.7930
Sup: 0.7732; 0.7700; 0.7661; 0.7624




AUD/NZD


The pair remains under pressure and continues to focus the downside targets, with near-term consolidation above 1.05 handle, expected to precede fresh push lower. Acceleration from 1.0792 high, which broke below Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0350/1.0792 rally, signals possible return to key 1.0350 support, with barriers at 1.0600, daily cloud base / daily 20SMA and 1.0630, daily 10/55SMA’s bear cross, expected to cap. Sustained break below 1.05 level is required to push daily indicators into negative territory and confirm bears fully in play.

Res: 1.0545; 1.0600; 1.0631; 1.0650
Sup: 1.0500; 1.0455; 1.0423; 1.0400




XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in a narrowing choppy mode, entrenched between descending daily 10SMA and 200 SMA that reinforces near-term base at 1251. Yesterday’s positive close sidelined immediate downside risk, however, retest of strong 1251 support cannot be ruled out, as daily indicators are heading south and bearish momentum building up. Tone of near-term studies is neutral and requires break out of near-term 1251/1285 range, to establish fresh direction. Daily 10SMA, currently at 1276, offers initial barrier, ahead of pivotal 1285 tops, above which to focus psychological 1300 resistance. Conversely, violation of strong 1251 support, 200SMA / Fibonacci 38.2%, would signal fresh extension of pullback from 1307 peak.

Res: 1274; 1276; 1285; 1293
Sup: 1259; 1255; 1251; 1237