Wednesday's Market Outlook: Euro Bounces Off Yesterday's Low At 1.0711

EUR/USD

The euro bounces off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.0711, in a corrective action on oversold near-term studies. Overall bears remain in play, with yesterday’s close in red and below daily 20SMA, confirming bearish stance towards next targets at 1.0686, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0461/1.1050, below which to confirm double-top for acceleration towards 1.0612/00, 19 Mar trough / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. Also, long red monthly candle confirms strong bearish tone. Former low at 1.0800, offers initial resistance, ahead of yesterday’s high at 1.0844, reinforced by daily 10SMA and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1050/1.0711 downleg that marks ideal reversal point for fresh leg lower. Only close above here would delay bears, in favor of stronger correction.

Res: 1.0844; 1.0881; 1.0921; 1.0947
Sup: 1.0753; 1.0727; 1.0711; 1.0686



EUR/JPY

Near-term tone remains weak, as bears accelerated from 130.24, yesterday’s high and posted fresh low at 128.59, after cracking Fibonacci 61.8% of 126.89/131.68 rally at 128.72. The price consolidates above 128.59, before further weakness, as overall bears remain fully in play and favor extension to 126.89, low of 13 Mar, to mark full retracement of 126.89/131.68 corrective rally. Daily 20SMA offers initial barrier at 129.68, with close above here to delay bears, however, only sustained break above 130.24 higher platform, would sideline immediate downside risk and shift near-term focus higher.

Res: 129.68; 130.00; 130.24; 130.85
Sup: 128.59; 128.25; 128.02; 127.61




GBP/USD

Yesterday’s long-legged Doji signals hesitation and near-term basing attempt above fresh low at 1.4753, with corrective bounce under way and being so far capped at 1.4870 by 4-hour Kijun-sen / cloud base. Improved near-term studies do not rule out extended correction, before bears re-assert, as overall picture remains negative. The notion is supported by monthly close above 2013 base at 1.4812/30 that was cracked on recent extension to 1.4633. That would signal extended consolidative phase, before fresh push lower, with contracting daily 20d Bollingers, confirming scenario. Falling daily 20SMA at 1.4902, marks a breakpoint and close above here to further delay overall bears. Next breakpoint lies at 1.50 zone, near-term congestion tops and only break here to revive bulls.

Res: 1.4870; 1.4902; 1.4920; 1.4953
Sup: 1.4808; 1.4750; 1.4721; 1.4686




USD/JPY

The pair closed in Doji yesterday, following recovery rally’s hesitation above psychological 120 level and action being capped by daily 20SMA. Subsequent easing to 119.40, where dips found temporary support, could be seen as corrective and preceding fresh attempts higher. Sustained break above 120.13, yesterday’s hourly lower platform, to confirm reversal and fresh attacks at initial 120.35 barrier, ahead of 120.60, Fibonacci 61.8% of 122.01/118.31. Daily studies are mixed and require break of 120.35/43, daily 20SMA/Bear-trendline off 122.01, for fresh direction higher or extension below 119.20/00 zone, daily 55SMA / Fibonacci 61.8% of 118.31/120.35 rally, to bring bears in play and confirm lower top at 120.35.

Res: 120.13; 120.35; 120.43; 121.00
Sup: 119.78; 119.50; 119.40; 119.10



AUD/USD

The pair remains under pressure and eventually probed below 0.76 handle, on extension to fresh low at 0.7589. Yesterday’s repeated daily negative close and monthly close in red, confirm strong bearish stance for final push to 0.7558, low of 11 Mar, to fully retrace 0.7558/0.7936 corrective rally and resume larger downtrend on sustained break lower. Near-term consolidative action is under way, holding for now below the first breakpoint at 0.7710/20, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7936/0.7589 downleg. Only break here would delay bears for stronger corrective rally, before final push to pivotal 0.7558 support.

Res: 0.7663; 0.7710; 0.7720; 0.7757
Sup: 0.7615; 0.7589; 0.7558; 0.7500




AUD/NZD

The bounces from fresh lows at 1.0150 zone that were retested yesterday, taking a pause in strong bearish mode and marking near-term base formation. Break above psychological 1.02 barrier and former low at 1.0216, supports the notion, along with improving daily studies. However, not much of the upside action to be expected, as 4-hour studies maintain negative tone and strong bearish setup of daily technicals, along with monthly close in red, keep the downside in focus. Corrective action should be ideally capped at 1.0270 zone, former consolidation floor and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0337/1.0152 downleg. Only break above lower platform at 1.0330 zone would provide near-term relief and allow for stronger correction.

Res: 1.0239; 1.0263; 1.0300; 1.0337
Sup: 1.0200; 1.0164; 1.0152; 1.0100




XAU/USD

Spot Gold bounces from fresh correction low at 1178, where pullback from 1219 high of 26 Mar was contained. Consolidative action above 1178, was so far capped by daily 10SMA at 1190, with sustained break here required to confirm basing attempt and signal stronger rally. Improving hourly studies support the notion. Otherwise, fresh attempts lower could be expected, as tone on daily studies is still weak. Break below initial 1182, daily Kijun-sen / session low and daily 20SMA, currently at 1175, to confirm resumption of reversal from 1219, towards 1172, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1142/1219 and 1168, 20 Mar higher low and confirm lower top at 1219.

Res: 1190; 1195; 1200; 1205
Sup: 1182; 1178; 1175; 1172