ECB extends QE beyond Mar 2017. Initially EUR rally as reduced monthly purchase (Eur 60b ln), but for 9 rather than 6 months.
Thursday’s session was taken up by the ECB meeting, which duly produced the QE extension many had been anticipating. With so much talk of tapering – which was dismissed in the press conference, the initial announcement that beyond March 2017 the monthly purchases would be a reduced Eur 60b ln, but over 9 months rather than the expected 6. President Draghi left the door open for more beyond Dec 2017, along with adjustments to APP as well as cash being accepted as collateral in the PSPP.
The net effect was EUR negative, with the initial response seeing the rally to 1.0850 met with stern selling here, though momentum briefly took us to 1.0870. Late in the day we are testing towards 1.0600, with North American players set to push lower, but 1.0500 lower down will be the major test. In the crosses, we see familiar resilience in EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY, while the EUR/CHF rally reached highs ahead of 1.0900 but we are already back under 1.0800.
The impact on the rest of the majors sees USD/JPY powered back up above 114.00 again, having rejected 113.00. This pair looks well supported in the run up to the FOMC next week as Treasuries continue to come under pressure – the 10yr yield well contained ahead of 230bps. USD/CHF is back in the upper 1.0100’s, while Cable has been hit back below 1.2600 after tipping 1.2700 earlier on in the session.
AUD, NZD and CAD all moving in tandem initially, posting fresh recent highs against the USD, though buoyant oil prices see the latter outperforming, but modestly so. AUD took a brief look above .7500, but although short lived, looks to be in consolidation mode despite more soft data (trade deficit widens, Q3 GDP fell 0.5% yesterday). NZD/USD has pushed up to .7200+, but strong resistance from .7240-70 here.