EUR weakened on the back of reports that an ECB majority is forming to cut rates amid a relatively light day in terms of tier one data
EUR/USD initially saw strength amid profit taking in the USD, however pared most of the gains it made throughout the morning after a major newswire reported that an ECB majority is forming on the subject of the central bank cutting the deposit rate in December. The newswire cited four governing council members, with some of the sources suggesting the cut could be larger than 10bps. The news quickly translated into broad based EUR weakness, with participants pricing in the potential for a possible Dec rate cut. This week sees the release of a flash reading of Q3 GDP out of the Eurozone; it could now receive even more attention given the report today, as a weak reading could ensure a majority of ECB members vote to ease monetary policy at December’s meeting.
The weakness in EUR has supported GBP/USD, as EUR/GBP trended sharply lower following the aforementioned news to the benefit of GBP. GBP/USD was also bolstered by Short sterling, which has been flattening on the back of the NFP report last week. This has been somewhat counter-intuitive, as the BoE were widely considered to have had a dovish tone at last weeks ‘Super Thursday’. Furthermore, this week sees the release of UK employment data, where participants will see whether the latest round of data is in line with the BoE’s dovish rhetoric.
Finally, JPY saw weakness throughout the morning, weighed upon by USD/JPY, which hit 10 week highs amid increased expectations of a Fed hike in December. GBP/JPY also traded above the key 200DMA line at 185.93. In the morning, however, USD/JPY pared some of its gains, as the USD early strength eased towards the end of the session.