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Daily FX Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY

ByActionForex
Published 03/28/2013, 06:30 AM
EUR/JPY
-0.57%
GBP/JPY
-0.72%
P
0.00%
P
0.00%
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
  • Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.99; (P) 142.89; (R1) 143.77;
We're still favoring the case that rebound from 137.87 has finished at 145.85 already. Fall from there is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 147.97. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 147.97 at 136.83 and below. Above 145.85 will bring another rise. But still, firm break of 147.97 is needed to confirm resumption of recent rally. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains as consolidation from 147.97 would continue.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
<span class=GBP/JPY, H4" title="GBP/JPY H4" width="600" height="600" />
<span class=GBP/JPY, Daily" title="GBP/JPY" width="600" height="600" />
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
  • Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.81; (P) 120.83; (R1) 121.73;
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside. Fall from 126.03 is still in progress and is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 127.70. Deeper decline is expected to 118.71 support and below. However, in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained by 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) to complete the consolidation.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise from there isn't finished yet and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Eventually, such rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. And, we'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.
<span class=EUR/JPY, H4" title="EUR/JPY H4" width="600" height="600" />
<span class=EUR/JPY, Daily" title="EUR/JPY" width="600" height="600" />

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