Daily FX Analysis: Set and Forget in Choppy Low Volume Conditions

Trading has been fairly quiet this week, albeit rather choppy from side to side.
There’s a sense of rising anticipation in the markets, but with limited data this week things could remain relatively quiet.
Thursday’s U.S. GDP figures could spark some excitement, but this week’s low volumes have allowed for rather oversized moves on little to no real market moving events.
This in turn creates a few challenges as the U.S. dollar tries to find its feet again, and the euro trades between tight range.
These environments tend to warrant set and forget style set-ups, so place you orders and stops and leave them alone.
EUR/USD
On a weekly basis the euro does look ready to take a pop lower, but it looks as if it is still finding good bids around the 1.2850 mark.
Last week’s price rejection is still in play technically, but with no real follow through these set-ups quickly reduce payout probability. It isn't unusual to see this sort of price action in a tight range before a bigger move as orders are cleared.

We still remain Bearish on the daily chart in the euro while remaining below the key 1.3000 level.
Our preference is to look for price rejections around the 1.3000 level or a break of the 1.2850 lower range. We still like shorts with stops above the 1.3000 level.

GBP/USD
The pound is also trading in a tight range, in very similar conditions to the euro.
Playing 4hr charts and small stochastic crossovers intraday works well in these environments.

The Pound itself seems to be finding some interim support in the range, and the weekly close could be interesting. We suspect we could chop around below
the 1.54000 and set a lower range for the time being, 1.54 to 1.50/1.48.


AUD/USD
The Aussie really seems to be trying to find support at the moment. We continue to like the idea that the pair is bottoming out at the moment ,and is feeling for those key support levels on the weekly and daily basis.
Our strategy is focused on looking for good long opportunities, such as the counter trend Pin Bar close. If we get further correctional moves in the U.S. Dollar and some follow through to the upside in this pair, we could see a large move to 0.9800 initially then towards parity.

Picking bottoms is as much an art as a skill, and can be highly unrewarding with the amount of stops. We prefer to be guided by the order book in the short term.
If we see a move lower in the current positioning, we could see a larger push higher. The order book closed out from extremes, and started an initial push long (we were therefore long intraday) but this needs to gather some momentum in order to result in a bigger push.