Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY Rally Resumes, EUR/JPY Rises Sharply

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.86; (P) 154.83; (R1) 156.40;

The GBP/JPY's rally resumed after brief consolidations, reaching as high as 156.29. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current uptrend should target 100% projection of 125.67 to 147.97 from 140.37 at 162.67 next, which is close to 163.05 key resistance. On the downside, a break of 153.26 minor support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in the event of retreat.

Medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term downtrend from 251.09 (2007 high). A rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as a fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 140.37 support holds.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.95; (P) 130.85; (R1) 132.13;

The EUR/JPY rose sharply, as high as 131.89. The break of 131.12 confirmed resumption of recent uptrend. Intraday bias is back on the upside, and further rally should be seen back to 132.03 long term fibo level first. A break will target 61.8% projection of 100.32 to 127.70 from 119.10 at 136.02. On the downside, break of 129.58 minor support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in the event of retreat.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. The rise from there isn't finished yet, and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Such a rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. A break of 119.10 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish.

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