GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook
GBP/JPY's fall from 163.87 extended lower last week in spite of intra-week recovery. The breach of 151.64 low argues that larger decline from 195.86 is resuming. Initial bias is on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 151.64 will target next long term fibonacci level at 147.01 first. On the upside, break of 157.93 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, fall from 195.86 medium term is viewed as a corrective move. There is no confirmation of completion yet and GBP/JPY might still target 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 147.01. We'll start to look for reversal signal below there. However, break of 164.09 will suggests that decline is finished and open up the case for rebound to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 151.64 at 178.96 and above.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 116.83 long term bottom made a medium term top at 195.86 already. We'd expect price actions from 195.86 to develop into a corrective pattern. Such up trend should resume at a later stage after the correction completes.
EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook
EUR/JPY's down trend continued last week reached as low as 119.90. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for next projection level at 117.37. On the upside, break of 122.69 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 149.76 is still in progress and would extend to 100% projection of 149.76 to 126.09 from 141.04 at 117.37. We'll look for bottoming signal around 61.8% retracement of 94.11 to 149.76 at 115.36. Break of 124.18 resistance, however, will suggest that the correction has completed earlier than we thought and turn outlook bullish.
In the long term picture, price actions from 149.76 medium term are still viewed as developing into a corrective move. But deeper than expected fall is now opening the case that it's part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96, rather than a correction to rise from 94.11. In any case, we'll look at the structure and make an assessment at a later stage.
