Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY And EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.57; (P) 129.27; (R1) 129.71;

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 128.38 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 127.10 support. Break will confirm resumption of whole fall from 133.48 and should target 61.8% retracement of 117.29 to 133.48 at 123.47. Though, above 130.76 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 133.48 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're like to point out that GBP/JPY has been the relatively stronger yen cross. The choppy decline from 163.05 should either be a diagonal triangle or the second leg of a consolidation pattern from 118.81. In either case, 116.83 is a medium term bottom and fall from 133.48 should be contained above this level. And, rise from 116.83 should eventually resume and pass through 140.02 resistance towards 163.05 key resistance level. We'll maintain this view unless the structure of the fall from 133.48 suggests otherwise.
GBP/JPY H4" title="GBP/JPY H4" width="911" height="662">

GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="911" height="662">

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.05; (P) 104.81; (R1) 105.23;

EUR/JPY drops to as low as 103.22 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 97.03 to 111.43 at 102.53. Break will pave the way to retest 97.03 low. On the upside, above 104.61 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 108.00 and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, with EUR/JPY now back below 55 days and 55 weeks EMA, the development is starting to favor the case that the down trend from 169.69 isn't completed yet. That is another low below 97.03 would be seen. Nonetheless, note that price actions from 139.21 are likely unfolding as a falling wedge pattern with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Current fall from 111.43 should be the last leg in such pattern in the bearish case. And thus, the break of 97.03 support should be marginal and strong support should be seen there to finally bring trend reversal. Hence, while deeper decline could be seen, we'll look for bottoming signs as EUR/JPY breaks 97.03. Meanwhile, above 111.43 will revive the case that EUR/JPY has indeed bottomed and would turn outlook bullish.

EUR/JPY H4" title="EUR/JPY H4" width="911" height="662">

EUR/JPY" title="EUR/JPY" width="911" height="662">