Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY and EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.51; (P) 125.85; (R1) 126.25;

GBP/JPY edges higher to 129.65 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 131.16 first. As noted before, the decline from 140.02 should have finished at 116.83 already. Break of 131.16 fibo level will target a test on 140.02 next. On the downside, below 126.83 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the choppy decline from 163.05 is viewed as part of the down trend from 251.09. Current development is starting to suggest that such fall is finished. Focus is now turned to 140.02 key resistance. Sustained break there will firstly indication completion of fall from 163.05. More importantly, this will also signal completion of the whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09. In such case, stronger rise should be seen back to retest on 163.05.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.62; (P) 108.43; (R1) 110.02;

EUR/JPY edges higher to 109.83 today so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.57 resistance. As noted before, fall from 123.31 has likely finished on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 111.57 will affirm this bullish case and target 123.31 key resistance next. On the downside, below 108.17 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, the case of trend reversal in EUR/JPY is starting to build up and 97.03 should be a medium term bottom. Break of 111.57 will affirm this case and should at least push EUR/JPY for a test on 123.31 resistance. Break there will argue that whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 is completed and reversed. Though, failure to take out 123.31 and reversal from there will likely bring some sideway trading between 97.03/123.31 in medium term.

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