Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY and EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.88; (P) 118.26; (R1) 118.96;

GBP/JPY's recovery from 117.29 is still in progress and more consolidative trading could be seen. But note that with 119.11 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and recent fall is still expected to continue. Below 117.29 will target 116.83 key support level next. Break there will confirm resumption of larger down trend. On the upside, break of 119.11 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound back towards 55 days EMA (now at 120.50).

In the bigger picture, fall from 127.30 is tentatively treated as resumption of decline from 140.20, which is part of the medium term down trend from 163.05. Break of 116.83 will confirm such down trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 140.02 to 116.83 from 127.30 at 112.96. On the upside, break of 127.30 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 98.03; (P) 98.46; (R1) 99.23;

EUR/JPY's break of 98.80 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 97.03 on bullish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside and stronger rebound could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 105.54 to 97.03 at 100.28. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 102.48 support turned resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. On the downside, below 97.68 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 97.03 low first.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 123.31 is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low as well as100% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of rebound.

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