Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY and EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.53; (P) 119.87; (R1) 120.13;

GBP/JPY is still bounded in tight range above 118.98 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidative trading could be seen. But we'd still expect upside to be limited by 120.33 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Prior break of 119.37 suggests that whole decline from 127.30 has resumed. Below 118.98 will target 61.8% projection of 127.30 to 119.37 from 122.76 at 117.85, and then 116.83 key support. Though, break of 120.33 will dampen this immediate bearish view and turn outlook neutral first, with focus back to 122.76 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal in GBP/JPY as it's still staying well below the falling 55 weeks EMA (now at 126.94). The down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 130.83 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of further rebound.




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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 98.80; (P) 99.52; (R1) 100.00;

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline is expected to target 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 97.62 next On the upside, though, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 110.30 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 102.53 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY moved further away from the falling 55 weeks EMA and affirmed the case that downtrend from 2008 high of 169.96 is still in progress. Sustained trading below 100 psychological level should pave the way to 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross.

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