Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY: March 13, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.07; (P) 143.10; (R1) 144.20;

The GBP/JPY lost some upside momentum but a rebound from 137.87 is still in progress, and would extend to retest 147.97 resistance. A sustained break is needed there to confirm resumption of recent rally, or the risk of another fall remains. Meanwhile, below 141.44 will flip bias back to the downside to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 147.97 at 136.83 and below to extend the correction from 147.97.

Medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). A rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.39; (P) 125.21; (R1) 126.04;

The EUR/JPY pair lost some upside momentum but with 123.79 minor support intact, rebound from 118.71 is still expected to continue to retest 127.70 resistance. Break there will confirm resumption of whole rise from 94.11, and should target 130 psychological level next. On the downside, below 123.79 minor support will suggest that consolidation from 127.70 is still in progress, and has started another leg for 118.71 and below. In that case, we'd expect downside to be contained by 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) to complete the consolidation.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise from there isn't finished yet, and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Eventually, such rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. We'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.

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