Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.70; (P) 150.40; (R1) 151.34;
Current development suggests that whole rebound from 147.10 is completed and was only a corrective move. A fall from 153.01 is possibly the third leg of the correction from 156.77. A break of 149.24 should confirm this bearish case. Further fall should be seen through 147.10 and target 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 156.77 at 142.27. On the upside, above 153.01 will bring stronger rebound towards 156.77 instead.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 156.77 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper pull back could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 156.77 at 142.27. Strong support would likely be seen at 140.37 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. We still expect whole rise from 116.83 medium term bottom to resume later to 163.05 resistance and above, after completing the correction.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.94; (P) 129.41; (R1) 130.24;
We're slightly favoring the case that 124.95 is finished already and was a corrective move. That is, fall from 131.11 is possibly the third leg of the correction from 133.80. Another fall is expected to 126.57. Break will confirm this case and should target 124.95 and below. On the upside, above 131.11 will bring stronger rise back towards 133.80 instead.
The current development argues that the medium term uptrend from 94.11 has topped out at 133.80 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Correction from there could extend with another fall to target 119.10 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 133.80 at 118.63). Strong support would be seen there, at least on initial attempt. A break will target 61.8% retracement at 109.27. Considering the five wave structure of the rise from 94.11, we'd expect another medium term rally after completing the correction.
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