Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.12; (P) 139.95; (R1) 142.05;

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 137.87 and broke mentioned 139.25 (38.2% retracement of 125.67 to 147.97 at 139.45). There is no sign of bottoming yet and indeed, the fall from 147.97 is accelerating. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current fall could now target 50% retracement at 136.82 and below. On the upside,, break of 142.76 is needed to indicate completion of the corrective fall. Otherwise, risk will now stays on the downside even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.36; (P) 121.28; (R1) 123.85;

EUR/JPY's fall from 127.70 accelerated to as low as 117.71 so far and broke 120.70. Deeper decline could be seen. Though, such decline is still viewed as a correction and thus, we're expecting strong support from 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 122.25 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for recovery. However, note that break of 117.04 would trigger deeper pull back to 50% retracement at 114.01 and below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. 123.31 (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08) is already met. Sustained trading above this level will target 61.8% retracement at 140.98. And, we'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.
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