Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY- March 07, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.81; (P) 141.15; (R1) 141.61;

With 142.76 resistance intact, GBP/JPY's correction from 147.79 is still in progress and would extend to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 147.97 at 136.83 and below. We'd expect strong support above 133.48 medium term level to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 142.76 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 147.97 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But a rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.55; (P) 121.91; (R1) 122.34;

At this point, the EUR/JPY is staying below 122.25 minor resistance and outlook remains unchanged. Correction from 127.70 could extend lower. We'd expect downside to be contained by 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) and bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 122.25 will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 127.70 high instead. However, note that break of 117.04 would trigger deeper pull back to 50% retracement at 114.01 and below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise from there isn't finished yet and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Eventually, such a rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. We'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.
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