Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY - March 8, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.94; (P) 141.97; (R1) 143.39;

The break of 142.76 minor resistance suggests that correction from 147.79 has already completed at 137.87. Intraday bias remains on the upside, and a further rise would be seen to retest this 147.79 high. But as long as this resistance holds, consolidation could extend with another fall. Below 140.55 will flip bias back to the downside for 137.87 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83 It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). A rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.50; (P) 123.54; (R1) 125.31;

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for 127.70 high. Note that the break is needed to confirm confirm up trend resumption or recent consolidative trading could extend further. Meanwhile, below 121.54 will bring another fall to extend the consolidation. But in that case, we'd expect downside to be contained by 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. The rise from there isn't finished yet and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Eventually, such a rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. We'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.

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