Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY - March 26, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.06; (P) 143.80; (R1) 144.58;

Intraday bias in the GBP/JPY pair remains neutral for now. Below 142.00 minor support will indicate that rebound from 137.87 has completed at 145.85. The consolidation pattern from 147.97 should have started the third leg for 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 147.97 at 136.83 and below. Even in the case of another rise, a firm break of 147.97 is needed to confirm resumption of recent rally. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains, as consolidation from 147.97 would continue.
M
edium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). A rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as a fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.62; (P) 122.54; (R1) 123.61;

The EUR/JPY is recovering, but is staying in tight range so far and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 126.03 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 127.70, and a deeper decline is expected. Below 121.44 will target 118.71 support and below. In that case, we'd expect downside to be contained by 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) to complete the consolidation. Above 126.03 will turn focus back to 127.70.

Whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise from there isn't finished yet and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Such a rise would eventually extend to 139.21 resistance and above. We'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.
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