Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY - February 15

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.16; (P) 144.27; (R1) 144.97;

The pull back from 147.97 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 140.48) and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 139.25 (38.2% retracement of 125.67 to 147.97 at 139.45 and bring rebound. Recent rally is still expected to continue after the corrective price actions complete. Break of 147.97 will target 150 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.26; (P) 124.61; (R1) 125.41;

The break of 123.42 minor support suggests that correction from 127.70 has resumed and intraday bias is now back on the downside for 120.70 resistance turned support and possibly below. But at this point, we'd expect strong support from 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) to contain downside and bring rebound. Recent up trend from 94.11 is still expected to continue for 130 psychological level after completing the correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has completed at 94.11 already, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. 123.31 (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08) is already met. Sustained trading above this level will target 61.8% retracement at 140.98. And, we'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.

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