Daily Currency Outlook: GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.57; (P) 145.58; (R1) 146.20;

The break of 144.56 minor support suggests that correction from 147.97 is going to go deeper. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside, and a deeper fall would be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 140.40). But we'd expect strong support from 139.25 (38.2%) retracement of 125.67 to 147.97 at 139.45 and bring rebound. Recent rally is still expected to continue and above 147.97 will target a 150 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83 . It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term downtrend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back at 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
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GBP/JPY" title="GBP/JPY" width="681" height="437">
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.78; (P) 125.67; (R1) 126.57;

EUR/JPY is still stuck in range below 127.70, and intraday bias remains neutral for now. The consolidation from 127.70 could extend further, and below 123.42 would bring deeper pull back to 120.70 resistance turned support - and possibly below. But we'd expect strong support from 117.04 (38.2% retracement of 100.32 to 127.70 at 117.24) to contain downside and bring rebound. The recent uptrend from 94.11 is still expected to continue for 130 psychological level after completing the correction.

In the bigger picture, the whole downtrend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. 123.31 (38.2% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 123.08) has already been met. Sustained trading above this level will target 61.8% retracement at 140.98. We'll stay bullish as long as 111.43 resistance turned support holds.

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