Daily Currency Outlook: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY - April 11, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.88; (P) 152.46; (R1) 153.55;

Upside momentum in the GBP/JPY pair remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying below the signal line. Intraday bias stays neutral first, and we'd expect a pull back soon. Below 151.32 will turn bias to the downside for retreat, possibly back to 4 hours 55 EMA. But downside should be contained well above 145.91 support and bring rise resumption. Current rally is still expected to extend higher to 61.8% projection of 125.67 to 147.97 from 140.37 at 154.15 next.

Medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). A rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 140.37 support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.70; (P) 130.12; (R1) 130.83;

EUR/JPY breached the 130 psychological level, but upside momentum remains weak with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line. Intraday bias stays neutral first, and we'd expect some pull back soon. Below 128.43 minor support will bring deeper retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA. Downside should be contained well above 123.86 support and bring another rally. Sustained trading above 130 psychological level, though, will pave the way to next long term retracement level at 132.03 next.

Whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise from there isn't finished yet, and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Eventually, such a rise would probably extend to 139.21 resistance and above. Break of 119.10 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish.
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