Daily Currency Outlook: Bearish On GPB/JPY, Fall For EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.62; (P) 149.15; (R1) 150.72;

At this point, we're still favoring the bearish case that fall from 154.04 is resuming whole decline from 156.77. Below 147.61 will send GBP/JPY through 147.10 support to 100% projection of 156.77 to 147.10 from 154.04 at 144.37. However, break of 151.53 will bring stronger rebound to extend the consolidation from 147.10 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 156.77 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper pull back could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 156.77 at 142.27. Strong support would likely be seen at 140.37 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Overall, we'd still expect whole rise from 116.83 medium term bottom to resume later to 163.05 resistance and above after completing the correction.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.89; (P) 129.02; (R1) 129.61;

The EUR/JPY's fall from 132.73 extends lower today and reaches as low as 128.21 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 128.01 support first. Break will confirm the bearish view that rebound from 124.95 has completed at 132.73 already. Fall from there is the third leg of the consolidation from 133.80 and would target 124.95 and below. On the upside, above 129.80 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the medium term up trend from 94.11 has topped out at 133.80 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Consolidation from there could extend with another fall to target 119.10 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 133.80 at 118.63). Strong support would be seen there, at least on initial attempt. But, break will target 61.8% retracement at 109.27. Nonetheless, considering the five wave structure of the rise from 94.11, we'd expect another medium term rally after completing the correction.
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