USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.23; (P) 112.44(R1) 112.74;
The breach of 112.72 temporary top suggests that rebound from 111.62 is resuming. Intraday bias is turned to the upside for retesting 114.54 high. On the downside, break of 111.94 minor support will resume the correction from 114.54 to 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support in that case.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9948; (P) 0.9963; (R1) 0.9978;
USD/CHF lost upside momentum with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for now. As long as 0.9848 support holds, further rise is expected. Above 0.9977 will extend the rally from 0.9541 to 1.0067 key resistance. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9848 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish.
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In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.
