USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.44; (P) 110.19; (R1) 110.83;
USD/JPY’s decline from 111.39 extends to as low as 109.32 so far and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 108.82 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 108.80). We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 110.32 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed. And, in that case, retest of 111.39 high should be seen. But, decisive break there is now needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, more corrective trading would be seen in near term.
In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Rise from 104.62 is possibly resuming the up trend from 98.97 (2016 low). This will be the preferred case as long as108.82 support holds. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will confirm our view and target 118.65 and above. However, decisive break of 108.82 will dampen the bullish outlook and revive the case of a break of 104.62 low before bottoming.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3289; (P) 1.3366; (R1) 1.3427;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.3441 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 1.4376 is still in progress for 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874. On the upside, 1.3441 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4249). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 should now be firmly taken out. Next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3761) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
