USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Correction from 110.02 short term top could extend to near term channel support (now at 108.61) and possibly below. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 110.02 at 107.95 to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 110.02 will resume the rise from 104.62 to t 61.8% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 110.86 next.
In the bigger picture, break of 108.12 support turned resistance now suggests that corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. And, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus is back on 114.73 resistance and break there will pave the way to 118.65 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as USD/JPY stays above 55 day EMA (now at 107.97).
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9952; (P) 0.9976; (R1) 1.0017;
USD/CHF continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no sign of a pull back yet. Hence, intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0037 resistance. Decisive break there will extend the whole rally from 0.9186 towards 1.0342 key resistance On the downside, though, below 0.9937 minor support will indicate short term topping. And, in that case, deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9886) or below before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9648 resistance turned support holds, even in case of pull back.
