USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.06; (P) 110.28; (R1) 110.58;
USD/JPY’s rise from 108.10 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.39. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 104.62. On the downside, break of 109.18 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline towards 108.10 support.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9837; (P) 0.9861; (R1) 0.9891;
USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.9787 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 0.9911 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective pull back from 1.0056 is already completed. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0056 first. On the downside, below 0.9787 will extend the correction. But we’d expect strong support from 0.9724 fibonacci level to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
