USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.46; (P) 108.74; (R1) 109.09;
USD/JPY is staying in consolidation above 108.10 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 109.82 minor resistance holds, near term outlook remains mildly bearish. Below 108.10 will target 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. Break will likely resume larger decline from 118.65 for a new low below 104.62. Nonetheless, break of 109.82 will turn focus back to 111.39 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY remains bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). The development. Current deeper than expected fall from 111.39 argues that fall from 118.65 is not finished. Break of 104.62 low would target 98.97 or even below. Though, break of 111.39 will revive the case that fall from 118.65 has completed and turn focus to 114.73 for confirmation.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9823; (P) 0.9862; (R1) 0.9899;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside, with focus on trend line support (now at 0.9872). Sustained trading below there will indicate that fall from 1.0056 is a larger scale correction, correcting rise from 0.9186. And deeper fall would be seen back to 0.9724 fibonacci level before completion. Though, rebound from current level, followed by break of 0.9982 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.0056 high.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.
